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Prediction Success of Machine Learning Methods for Flash Flood Susceptibility Mapping in the Tafresh Watershed, Iran

doi: 10.3390/su11195426
handle: 10919/94562
Floods are some of the most destructive and catastrophic disasters worldwide. Development of management plans needs a deep understanding of the likelihood and magnitude of future flood events. The purpose of this research was to estimate flash flood susceptibility in the Tafresh watershed, Iran, using five machine learning methods, i.e., alternating decision tree (ADT), functional tree (FT), kernel logistic regression (KLR), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA). A geospatial database including 320 historical flood events was constructed and eight geo-environmental variables—elevation, slope, slope aspect, distance from rivers, average annual rainfall, land use, soil type, and lithology—were used as flood influencing factors. Based on a variety of performance metrics, it is revealed that the ADT method was dominant over the other methods. The FT method was ranked as the second-best method, followed by the KLR, MLP, and QDA. Given a few differences between the goodness-of-fit and prediction success of the methods, we concluded that all these five machine-learning-based models are applicable for flood susceptibility mapping in other areas to protect societies from devastating floods.
- Virginia Tech United States
- Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands Iran (Islamic Republic of)
- Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology Viet Nam
- Institute of Geological Sciences Viet Nam
- Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources Korea (Republic of)
susceptibility mapping, Environmental effects of industries and plants, TJ807-830, data mining, GIS, TD194-195, gis, Renewable energy sources, Environmental sciences, spatial modeling, GE1-350, alternating decision tree
susceptibility mapping, Environmental effects of industries and plants, TJ807-830, data mining, GIS, TD194-195, gis, Renewable energy sources, Environmental sciences, spatial modeling, GE1-350, alternating decision tree
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).210 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 0.1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 0.1%
