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Global Climate Pattern Impacts on Long-Term Olive Yields in Northwestern Africa: Case from Souss-Massa Region

Authors: Abahous, Houria; Bouchaou, Lhoussaine; Chehbouni, Abdelghani;

Global Climate Pattern Impacts on Long-Term Olive Yields in Northwestern Africa: Case from Souss-Massa Region

Abstract

In arid to semi-arid regions, vulnerability to climate change combined with the overexploitation of water resources is jeopardizing food security. In the Souss-Massa region in central Morocco, the rural population relies on growing olives for a living. The management of these orchards is mostly traditional under rainfed irrigation, which induces a high level of dependence on climate variability. In the present study, we investigate the long-term trends of the relationship between the observed olive yields and global climate patterns during the period 1973–2014. We apply lagged Spearman’s correlations and cross-wavelet analysis to detect the potential influence of El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on the yield variability of olive orchards. The results of a Mann-Kendall test show a statistically significant decreasing trend in olive yields during the studied period. Statistically significant negative correlations were observed for (lag = −1) with spring and summer NINO 3.4 and with summer and autumn PDO. No statistically significant correlations between olive yields and NAO and IOD were observed. The results of wavelet coherence between annual olive yields and PDO and ENSO revealed that the highest values of power spectrum coherence occurred during the (lag = 0) spring PDO and (lag = −1) spring ENSO, both with an antiphase relationship. During the studied period, the extreme events of El Niña and El Niño years corresponded to below average yields.

Country
France
Keywords

[SDE] Environmental Sciences, 550, Environmental effects of industries and plants, climate oscillation olive yields semi-arid agriculture wavelet coherence, semi-arid, wavelet coherence, TJ807-830, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, coherence, Environmental sciences, wavelet, climate oscillation, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, GE1-350, olive yields, agriculture

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    11
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
11
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold