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Hydrodynamic Model Ensembles for Climate Change Projections in Estuarine Regions

Authors: Isabel Iglesias; Ana Bio; Willian Melo; Paulo Avilez-Valente; José Pinho; Mariana Cruz; Ana Gomes; +3 Authors

Hydrodynamic Model Ensembles for Climate Change Projections in Estuarine Regions

Abstract

In the current context of climate change, understanding the effects of the changing conditions on estuaries is of utmost importance to protect populations and ecosystems. Given the diversity of impacts depending on the region, there is a need for local and dedicated studies to understand and mitigate the risks. Numerical models can provide forecasts of extreme floods and sea-level rise (SLR). However, they can present inaccuracies. In this work, the ensemble technique was applied to improve the numerical modeling forecasting for estuaries by considering scenarios of extreme river flow discharges (EFDs) and SLR scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The simulations were performed for two different estuarine regions in northern Portugal, and the superensemble was constructed with the results of two different numerical models. The results differed per estuary, highlighting the importance of a local approach. For the Douro estuary dynamics, the results showed that for the EFD, the effects of the SLR were not noticeable, indicating that, in this estuary, the river component was more important than the maritime component. In contrast, the Minho estuary dynamics were found to be affected by the SLR along the whole estuarine region, indicating a maritime influence and a worsening of the flood conditions for future scenarios.

Country
Portugal
Keywords

extreme events, Numerical models, Climate change, TD201-500, numerical models, Science & Technology, Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes, ensemble, estuaries; hydrodynamics; ensemble; numerical models; extreme events; climate change, Hydraulic engineering, Extreme events, estuaries, climate change, hydrodynamics, Hydrodynamics, Estuaries, TC1-978, Ensemble

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
12
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
10
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gold