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Water
Other literature type . 2022
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Water
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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Water
Article . 2022
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Different Hydroclimate Modelling Approaches Can Lead to a Large Range of Streamflow Projections under Climate Change: Implications for Water Resources Management

Authors: Francis H. S. Chiew; Hongxing Zheng; Nicholas J. Potter; Stephen P. Charles; Marcus Thatcher; Fei Ji; Jozef Syktus; +2 Authors

Different Hydroclimate Modelling Approaches Can Lead to a Large Range of Streamflow Projections under Climate Change: Implications for Water Resources Management

Abstract

The paper compares future streamflow projections for 133 catchments in the Murray–Darling Basin simulated by a hydrological model with future rainfall inputs generated from different methods informed by climate change signals from different global climate models and dynamically downscaled datasets. The results show a large range in future projections of hydrological metrics, mainly because of the uncertainty in rainfall projections within and across the different climate projection datasets. Dynamical downscaling provides simulations at higher spatial resolutions, but projections from different datasets can be very different. The large number of approaches help provide a robust understanding of future hydroclimate conditions, but they can also be confusing. For water resources management, it may be prudent to communicate just a couple of future scenarios for impact assessments with stakeholders and policymakers, particularly when practically all of the projections indicate a drier future in the Basin. The median projection for 2046–2075 relative to 1981–2010 for a high global warming scenario is a 20% decline in streamflow across the Basin. More detailed assessments of the impact and adaptation options could then use all of the available datasets to represent the full modelled range of plausible futures.

Keywords

water resources management, Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes, Hydraulic engineering, streamflow projections, dynamical downscaling, bias correction, climate change, TC1-978, TD201-500, empirical scaling, streamflow projections; climate change; dynamical downscaling; empirical scaling; bias correction; water resources management; Murray–Darling Basin

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    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
13
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
gold