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Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
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Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change

Authors: Giovanni Forzieri; Vasilis Dakos; Nate G. McDowell; Alkama Ramdane; Alessandro Cescatti;

Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change

Abstract

The stability of forest ecosystems depends on their capacity to withstand and recover from natural and anthropogenic perturbations, i.e., their resilience. Experimental evidence of sudden increases in tree mortality is raising concerns about variation in forest resilience, yet little is known about how it is evolving in response to climate change. Here, we integrate satellite-based vegetation indices with machine learning to show how forest resilience, quantified in terms of critical slowing down indicators, has changed over the period 2000-2020. We show that tropical, arid and temperate forests are experiencing a significant decline in resilience, likely related to the increasing water limitations and climate variability. In contrast, boreal forests show an increasing trend in resilience, likely benefitting from warming and CO2 fertilization, which may outweigh the adverse effects of climate change. These patterns emerge consistently in both managed and intact forests corroborating the existence of common large-scale climate drivers. Reductions in resilience are statistically linked to abrupt declines in forest productivity, occurring in response to a slow drifting toward a critical resilience threshold. Approximately 23% of intact undisturbed forests, corresponding to 3.32 Pg C of gross primary productivity, have already reached a critical threshold and are experiencing a further degradation in resilience. Together, these signals reveal a widespread decline in forests’ capacity to withstand perturbation that should be accounted for in the design of land-based mitigation and adaptation plans.

Countries
France, Italy, France
Keywords

[SDE] Environmental Sciences, Satellite Imagery, Acclimatization, Climate Change, Forests, History, 21st Century, Models, Biological, Article, Trees, Machine Learning, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, Taiga, [SDV.EE.ECO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, Temperature, Water, Forestry, Carbon Dioxide, [SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, [SDV.EE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, environment, Carbon Dioxide; Forestry; History, 21st Century; Machine Learning; Satellite Imagery; Taiga; Temperature; Water; Acclimatization; Climate Change; Forests; Models, Biological; Trees

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    315
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 0.1%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
315
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 0.1%
Green
hybrid