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Shifts in rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures associated with climate change are likely to cause widespread forest decline in regions where droughts are predicted to increase in duration and severity. One primary cause of productivity loss and plant mortality during drought is hydraulic failure. Drought stress creates trapped gas emboli in the water transport system, which reduces the ability of plants to supply water to leaves for photosynthetic gas exchange and can ultimately result in desiccation and mortality. At present we lack a clear picture of how thresholds to hydraulic failure vary across a broad range of species and environments, despite many individual experiments. Here we draw together published and unpublished data on the vulnerability of the transport system to drought-induced embolism for a large number of woody species, with a view to examining the likely consequences of climate change for forest biomes. We show that 70% of 226 forest species from 81 sites worldwide operate with narrow (<1 megapascal) hydraulic safety margins against injurious levels of drought stress and therefore potentially face long-term reductions in productivity and survival if temperature and aridity increase as predicted for many regions across the globe. Safety margins are largely independent of mean annual precipitation, showing that there is global convergence in the vulnerability of forests to drought, with all forest biomes equally vulnerable to hydraulic failure regardless of their current rainfall environment. These findings provide insight into why drought-induced forest decline is occurring not only in arid regions but also in wet forests not normally considered at drought risk.

Shifts in rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures associated with climate change are likely to cause widespread forest decline in regions where droughts are predicted to increase in duration and severity. One primary cause of productivity loss and plant mortality during drought is hydraulic failure. Drought stress creates trapped gas emboli in the water transport system, which reduces the ability of plants to supply water to leaves for photosynthetic gas exchange and can ultimately result in desiccation and mortality. At present we lack a clear picture of how thresholds to hydraulic failure vary across a broad range of species and environments, despite many individual experiments. Here we draw together published and unpublished data on the vulnerability of the transport system to drought-induced embolism for a large number of woody species, with a view to examining the likely consequences of climate change for forest biomes. We show that 70% of 226 forest species from 81 sites worldwide operate with narrow (<1 megapascal) hydraulic safety margins against injurious levels of drought stress and therefore potentially face long-term reductions in productivity and survival if temperature and aridity increase as predicted for many regions across the globe. Safety margins are largely independent of mean annual precipitation, showing that there is global convergence in the vulnerability of forests to drought, with all forest biomes equally vulnerable to hydraulic failure regardless of their current rainfall environment. These findings provide insight into why drought-induced forest decline is occurring not only in arid regions but also in wet forests not normally considered at drought risk.

Abstract A permanent automated continuous seismic CO2 geosequestration monitoring system for was installed at CO2CRC Otway Project site (Victoria, Australia) in early 2020. The system is composed of five deviated ∼1600 m deep wells equipped with distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) acting as seismic receivers and nine seismic orbital vibrators (SOV) as seismic sources. DAS recording is performed continuously by three iDASv3 units. Each SOV operates for 2.5 h at a time, and hence all SOVs operating sequentially (during daytime only) produce in a single vintage every two days. Each vintage consists of 45 offset VSP transects covering predicted CO2 plume migration paths over ∼0.7 km2 area. An automated data processing implemented on-site reduces data size from ∼1.3 TB/day to ∼500 MB/day with the results transmitted to the office daily. The repeatability analysis based on pre-injection data (acquired from May to October 2020 before the injection start in December 2020) shows that variability of SOV performance is the main source of non-repeatability while borehole measurements are stable. An SOV waveform could reach NRMS value from 20 to 100 % within a few days. However, deconvolution of the seismograms with the waveform of the direct wave reduces the repeatability to within 10–15 % NRMS.

Abstract A permanent automated continuous seismic CO2 geosequestration monitoring system for was installed at CO2CRC Otway Project site (Victoria, Australia) in early 2020. The system is composed of five deviated ∼1600 m deep wells equipped with distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) acting as seismic receivers and nine seismic orbital vibrators (SOV) as seismic sources. DAS recording is performed continuously by three iDASv3 units. Each SOV operates for 2.5 h at a time, and hence all SOVs operating sequentially (during daytime only) produce in a single vintage every two days. Each vintage consists of 45 offset VSP transects covering predicted CO2 plume migration paths over ∼0.7 km2 area. An automated data processing implemented on-site reduces data size from ∼1.3 TB/day to ∼500 MB/day with the results transmitted to the office daily. The repeatability analysis based on pre-injection data (acquired from May to October 2020 before the injection start in December 2020) shows that variability of SOV performance is the main source of non-repeatability while borehole measurements are stable. An SOV waveform could reach NRMS value from 20 to 100 % within a few days. However, deconvolution of the seismograms with the waveform of the direct wave reduces the repeatability to within 10–15 % NRMS.

AbstractExtreme event attribution studies attempt to quantify the role of human influences in observed weather and climate extremes. These studies are of broad scientific and public interest, although quantitative results (e.g., that a specific event was made a specific number of times more likely because of anthropogenic forcings) can be difficult to communicate accurately to a variety of audiences and difficult for audiences to interpret. Here, we focus on how results of these studies can be effectively communicated using standardized language and propose, for the first time, a set of calibrated terms to describe event attribution results. Using these terms and an accompanying visual guide, results are presented in terms of likelihood of event changes and the associated uncertainties. This standardized language will allow clearer communication and interpretation of probabilities by the public and stakeholders.

AbstractExtreme event attribution studies attempt to quantify the role of human influences in observed weather and climate extremes. These studies are of broad scientific and public interest, although quantitative results (e.g., that a specific event was made a specific number of times more likely because of anthropogenic forcings) can be difficult to communicate accurately to a variety of audiences and difficult for audiences to interpret. Here, we focus on how results of these studies can be effectively communicated using standardized language and propose, for the first time, a set of calibrated terms to describe event attribution results. Using these terms and an accompanying visual guide, results are presented in terms of likelihood of event changes and the associated uncertainties. This standardized language will allow clearer communication and interpretation of probabilities by the public and stakeholders.