• Energy Research
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China has been embracing rapid motorization since the 1990s, and vehicles have become one of the major sources of air pollution problems. Since the late 1990s, thanks to the international experience, China has adopted comprehensive control measures to mitigate vehicle emissions. This study employs a local emission model (EMBEV) to assess China's first fifteen-year (1998-2013) efforts in controlling vehicles emissions. Our results show that China's total annual vehicle emissions in 2013 were 4.16 million tons (Mt) of HC, 27.4 Mt of CO, 7.72 Mt of NOX, and 0.37 Mt of PM2.5, respectively. Although vehicle emissions are substantially reduced relative to the without control scenarios, we still observe significantly higher emission density in East China than in developed countries with longer histories of vehicle emission control. This study further informs China's policy-makers of the prominent challenges to control vehicle emissions in the future. First, unlike other major air pollutants, total NOX emissions have rapidly increased due to a surge of diesel trucks and the postponed China IV standard nationwide. Simultaneous implementation of fuel quality improvements and vehicle-engine emission standards will be of great importance to alleviate NOX emissions for diesel fleets. Second, the enforcement of increasingly stringent standards should include strict oversight of type-approval conformity, in-use complacence and durability, which would help reduce gross emitters of PM2.5 that are considerable among in-use diesel fleets at the present. Third, this study reveals higher HC emissions than previous results and indicates evaporative emissions may have been underestimated. Considering that China's overall vehicle ownership is far from saturation, persistent efforts are required through economic tools, traffic management and emissions regulations to lower vehicle-use intensity and limit both exhaust and evaporative emissions. Furthermore, in light of the complex technology for emerging new energy vehicles, their real-world emissions need to be adequately evaluated before massive promotion.

Abstract Modeling fuel consumption of light-duty passenger vehicles has created substantial concerns due to the uncertainty from real-world operating conditions. Macao is world-renowned for its tourism industry and high population density. An empirical model is developed to estimate real-world fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions for gasoline-powered light-duty passenger vehicles in Macao by considering local fleet configuration and operating conditions. Thanks to increasingly stringent fuel consumption limits in vehicle manufacturing countries, estimated type-approval fuel consumption for light-duty passenger vehicles in Macao by model year was reduced from 7.4 L/100 km in 1995 to 5.9 L/100 km in 2012, although a significant upsizing trend has considerably offset potential energy-saving benefit. However, lower driving speed and the air-conditioning usage tend to raise fleet-average fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emission factors, which are estimated to be 10.1 L/100 km and 240 g/km in 2010. Fleet-total fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions are modeled through registered vehicle population-based and link-level traffic demand approaches and the results satisfactorily coincide with the historical record of fuel sales in Macao. Temporal and spatial variations in fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions from light-duty passenger vehicles further highlight the importance of effective traffic management in congested areas of Macao.

There have been significant advancements in electric vehicles (EVs) in recent years. However, the different changing patterns in emissions at upstream and on-road stages and complex atmospheric chemistry of pollutants lead to uncertainty in the air quality benefits from fleet electrification. This study considers the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in China to investigate whether EVs can improve future air quality. The Community Multiscale Air Quality model enhanced by the two-dimensional volatility basis set module is applied to simulate the temporally, spatially, and chemically resolved changes in PM2.5 concentrations and the changes of other pollutants from fleet electrification. A probable scenario (Scenario EV1) with 20% of private light-duty passenger vehicles and 80% of commercial passenger vehicles (e.g., taxis and buses) electrified can reduce average PM2.5 concentrations by 0.4 to 1.1 μg m-3 during four representative months for all urban areas of YRD in 2030. The seasonal distinctions of the air quality impacts with respect to concentration reductions in key aerosol components are also identified. For example, the PM2.5 reduction in January is mainly attributed to the nitrate reduction, whereas the secondary organic aerosol reduction is another essential contributor in August. EVs can also effectively assist in mitigating NO2 concentrations, which would gain greater reductions for traffic-dense urban areas (e.g., Shanghai). This paper reveals that the fleet electrification in the YRD region could generally play a positive role in improving regional and urban air quality.

The large (26-fold over the past 25years) increase in the on-road vehicle fleet in China has raised sustainability concerns regarding air pollution prevention, energy conservation, and climate change mitigation. China has established integrated emission control policies and measures since the 1990s, including implementation of emission standards for new vehicles, inspection and maintenance programs for in-use vehicles, improvement in fuel quality, promotion of sustainable transportation and alternative fuel vehicles, and traffic management programs. As a result, emissions of major air pollutants from on-road vehicles in China have peaked and are now declining despite increasing vehicle population. As might be expected, progress in addressing vehicle emissions has not always been smooth and challenges such as the lack of low sulfur fuels, frauds over production conformity and in-use inspection tests, and unreliable retrofit programs have been encountered. Considering the high emission density from vehicles in East China, enhanced vehicle, fuel and transportation strategies will be required to address vehicle emissions in China. We project the total vehicle population in China to reach 400-500 million by 2030. Serious air pollution problems in many cities of China, in particular high ambient PM2.5 concentration, have led to pressure to accelerate the progress on vehicle emission reduction. A notable example is the draft China 6 emission standard released in May 2016, which contains more stringent emission limits than those in the Euro 6 regulations, and adds a real world emission testing protocol and a 48-h evaporation testing procedure including diurnal and hot soak emissions. A scenario (PC[1]) considered in this study suggests that increasingly stringent standards for vehicle emissions could mitigate total vehicle emissions of HC, CO, NOX and PM2.5 in 2030 by approximately 39%, 57%, 59% and 79%, respectively, compared with 2013 levels. With additional actions to control the future light-duty passenger vehicle population growth and use, and introduce alternative fuels and new energy vehicles, the China total vehicle emissions of HC, CO, NOX and PM2.5 in 2030 could be reduced by approximately 57%, 71%, 67% and 84%, respectively, (the PC[2] scenario) relative to 2013. This paper provides detailed policy roadmaps and technical options related to these future emission reductions for governmental stakeholders.

The challenge to mitigate real-world emissions from vehicles calls for powerful in-use compliance supervision. The remote on-board diagnostic (OBD) approach, with wireless data communications, is one of the promising next-generation monitoring methods. We collected second-by-second profiles of carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOX) emissions, driving conditions and engine performance for three conventional diesel and three hybrid diesel buses participating in a remote OBD pilot program in Nanjing, China. Our results showed that the average CO2 emissions for conventional diesel and hybrid diesel buses were 816 ± 83 g km-1 and 627 ± 54 g km-1, respectively, under a typical driving pattern. An operating mode binning analysis indicated that CO2 emissions reduction by series-parallel hybrid technology was largely because of the significant benefits of the technology under the modes of low speed and low power demand. However, significantly higher CO2 emissions were observed for conventional diesel buses during rush hours, higher than 1200 g km-1. The OBD data suggested no improvement in NOX emission reduction for hybrid buses compared with conventional buses; both were approximately 12 g km-1 because of poor performance of the selective catalyst reduction (SCR) systems in the real world. Speed-dependent functions for real-world CO2 and NOX emissions were also constructed. The CO2 emissions of hybrid buses were much less sensitive to the average speed than conventional buses. If the average speed decreased from 20 km h-1 to 10 km h-1, the estimated CO2 emission factor for conventional buses would be increased by 34%. Such a change in speed would increase NOX emissions for conventional and hybrid buses by 38% and 56%, respectively. This paper demonstrates the useful features of the remote OBD system and can inform policy makers how to take advantage of these features in monitoring in-use vehicles.

Abstract The black carbon (BC) emitted from heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDDVs) is an important source of urban atmospheric pollution and creates strong climate-forcing impacts. The emission ratio of BC to total particle mass (PM) (i.e., BC/PM ratio) is an essential variable used to estimate total BC emissions from historical PM data; however, these ratios have not been measured using portable emission measurement systems (PEMS) in order to obtain real-world measurements over a wide range of driving conditions. In this study, we developed a PEMS platform by integrating two Aethalometers and an electric low pressure impactor to realize the joint measurement of real-world BC and PM emissions for ten HDDVs in China. Test results showed that the average BC/PM ratio for five HDDVs equipped with mechanical fuel injection (MI) engines was 0.43 ± 0.06, significantly lower (P

Abstract The increasing discrepancy between on-road and type-approval fuel consumption for LDPVs (light-duty passenger vehicles) has attracted tremendous attention. We measured on-road emissions for 60 LDPVs in three China's cities and calculated their fuel consumption and CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions. We further evaluated the impacts of variations in area-averaged speed on relative fuel consumption of gasoline LDPVs for the UAB (urban area of Beijing). On-road fuel consumption under the average driving pattern is 10 ± 2% higher than that normalized to the NEDC (new European driving cycle) cycle for all tested vehicles, and the on-road NEDC-normalized fuel consumption is higher by 30 ± 12% compared to type-approval values for gasoline vehicles. We observed very strong correlations between relative fuel consumption and average speed. Traffic control applied to LDPVs driving within the UAB during weekdays can substantially reduce total fleet fuel consumption by 23 ± 5% during restriction hours by limiting vehicle use and improving driving conditions. Our results confirmed that a new cycle for the type approval test for LDPVs with more real-world driving features is of great necessity. Furthermore, enhanced traffic control measures could play an important role in mitigating real-world fuel consumption and CO2 emissions for LDPVs in China.

Economic growth and globalization have led to a surge in civil aviation transportation demand. Among the major economies in the world, China has experienced a 12-fold increase in terms of total passenger aviation traffic volume since 2000 and is expected to be the largest aviation market soon. To better understand the environmental impacts of China's aviation sector, this study developed a real-world flight trajectory-based emission inventory, which enabled the fine-grained characterization of four-dimensional (time, longitude, latitude, and altitude) emissions of various flight stages. Our results indicated that fuel consumption and CO2 emissions showed two peaks in altitude distribution: below 1,000 m and between 8,000 and 12,000 m. Various pollutants depicted different vertical distributions; for example, nitrogen oxides (NOX) had a higher fraction during the high-altitude cruise stage due to the thermal NOX mechanism, while hydrocarbons had a dominant fraction at the low-altitude stages due to the incomplete combustion under low-load conditions. This improved aviation emission inventory approach identified that total emissions of CO2 and air pollutants from short-distance domestic flights would be significantly underestimated by the conventional great-circle-based approach due to underrepresented calculation parameters (particularly, flight distance, duration, and cruise altitude). Therefore, we suggest that more real-world aviation flight information, especially actual trajectory records, should be utilized to improve assessments of the environmental impacts of aviation.

Abstract Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) are promoted in China to ease increasing pressures of urban air pollution and oil security. In this paper, we measured two Toyota Prius HEVs by using a portable emission measurement system (PEMS) to evaluate their real–world performance with regard to gaseous emission factors and fuel consumption. Our results indicated that their average exhaust emission factors of CO, THC, NO X and CO 2 were 0.25±0.08 g km –1 , 0.015±0.002 g km –1 , 0.009±0.005 g km –1 and 136±21 g km –1 (i.e., 5.81±0.90 L 100 km –1 for fuel consumption) respectively, while driving the averaged on–road traffic pattern. Compared to conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles, the tested HEVs demonstrated significant advantages in simultaneously mitigating major air pollutants (e.g., NO X ), greenhouse gas emissions (CO 2 ) and fuel consumption. For example, average CO 2 emission factors are reduced by approximately 35% and 15% relative to conventional gasoline and diesel cars in Macao. Unlike conventional gasoline and diesel cars, relative CO 2 emission factors of HEVs were much less sensitive to speed change, while their relative NO X emission factors were reduced as average speed became lower. This indicates significant environmental and energy benefits from HEVs under congested driving conditions. Our assessment suggests that HEVs are a competitive technology option for the taxi fleet in Macao with strong advantages in saving fuel cost for taxi drivers and mitigating NO X emissions.