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This data set contains the essential files used as input for the analysis, intermediate files produced during the analysis, and the key output fields. The code of the analysis is available here: https://github.com/VUB-HYDR/2021_Thiery_etal_Science Input fields: - isimip.zip: Postprocessed ISIMIP2b simulation output. This data set is very similar to the data presented in Lange et al. (2020 Earth's Future) but includes selected additional impact models and scenarios (notably RCP8.5). This data set also includes the gridded population data. - GMT_50pc_manualoutput_4pathways.xlsx: Global mean temperature anomaly trajectories from the IPCC SR15 - wcde_data.xlsx: postprocessed cohort size data originally obtained from the Wittgenstein Centre Human Capital Data Explorer. - WPP2019_MORT_F16_1_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_BY_AGE_BOTH_SEXES.xlsx: Postprocessed life expectancy data originally obtained from the UNited Nations World Population Programme Intermediate files *only use if you're interested in reproducing the results*: - workspaces.zip: Postprocessed ISIMIP2b simulation output. These matlab workspaces contain data on land area annually exposed to extreme events which is stored in a format designed to speed up the analysis. - mw_isimip.mat: ISIMIP2 simulations metadata (e.g. model, gcm and rcp name per simulation) - mw_countries.mat: information on the countries used in the analysis (e.g. border polygon coordinates) - mw_exposure.mat: age-dependent exposure computed from the ISIMIP and population data - mw_exposure_pic.mat: pre-industrial control age-dependent exposure computed from the ISIMIP and population data - mw_exposure_pic_coldwaves.mat: pre-industrial control age-dependent exposure to coldwaves computed from the ISIMIP and population data Output of the analysis: - mw_output.mat: Matlab workspace containing all variables produced during the analysis presented in thepaper. Use this file if you wish to look up certain numbers or want to use the study results for further analysis.

Project: GCOS Earth Heat Inventory - A study under the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory (EHI), and presents an updated international assessment of ocean warming estimates, and new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period from 1960 to present. Summary: The file “GCOS_EHI_1960-2020_Earth_Heat_Inventory_Ocean_Heat_Content_data.nc” contains a consistent long-term Earth system heat inventory over the period 1960-2020. Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere which is driving global warming. Understanding the heat gain of the Earth system from this accumulated heat – and particularly how much and where the heat is distributed in the Earth system - is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming oceans, atmosphere and land, rising temperatures and sea level, and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This dataset is based on a study under the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory published in von Schuckmann et al. (2020), and presents an updated international assessment of ocean warming estimates, and new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period 1960-2020. The dataset also contains estimates for global ocean heat content over 1960-2020 for different depth layers, i.e., 0-300m, 0-700m, 700-2000m, 0-2000m, 2000-bottom, which are described in von Schuckmann et al. (2022). This version includes an update of heat storage of global ocean heat content, where one additional product (Li et al., 2022) had been included to the initial estimate. The Earth heat inventory had been updated accordingly, considering also the update for continental heat content (Cuesta-Valero et al., 2023).

<p>To understand how global warming can be kept well-below 2°C and even 1.5°C, climate policy uses scenarios that describe how society could transform in order to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. Such scenario are typically created with integrated assessment models that include a representation of the economy, and the energy, land-use, and industrial system. However, current climate change scenarios have a key weakness in that they typically focus on reaching specific climate goals in 2100 only. <br><br>This choice results in risky pathways that delay action and seemingly inevitably rely on large quantities of carbon-dioxide removal after mid-century. Here we propose a framework that more closely reflects the intentions of the UN Paris Agreement. It focusses on reaching a peak in global warming with either stabilisation or reversal thereafter. This approach provides a critical extension of the widely used Shared Socioecononomic Pathways (SSP) framework and reveals a more diverse picture: an inevitable transition period of aggressive near-term climate action to reach carbon neutrality can be followed by a variety of long-term states. It allows policymakers to explicitly consider near-term climate strategies in the context of intergenerational equity and long-term sustainability.</p>

The severity of F. oxysporum f.sp. conglutinans on rocket plants grown under simulated climate change conditions has been studied. The rocket plants were cultivated on an infested substrate (4 log CFU g-1) and a non-infested substrate over three cycles. Pots were placed in six phytotrons in order to simulate different environmental conditions: 1) 400-450 ppm CO2, 18-22°C; 2) 800-850 ppm CO2, 18-22°C; 3) 400-450 ppm CO2, 22-26°C, 4) 800-850 ppm CO2, 22-26°C, 5) 400-450 ppm CO2, 26-30°C; 6) 800-850 ppm CO2, 26-30°C. Substrates from the infested and control samples were collected from each phytotron at 0, 60 and 120 days after transplanting. The disease index, microbial abundance, leaf physiological performances, root exudates and variability in the fungal profiles were monitored. The disease index was found to be significantly influenced by higher levels of temperature and CO2. Plate counts showed that fungal and bacterial development was not affected by the different CO2 and temperature levels, but a significant decreasing trend was observed from 0 up to 120 days. Conversely, the F. oxysporum f.sp. conglutinans plate counts did not show any significantly decrease from 0 up to 120 days. The fungal profiles, evaluated by means of polymerase chain reaction denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE), showed a relationship to temperature and CO2 on fungal diversity profiles. Different exudation patterns were observed when the controls and infested plants were compared, and it was found that both CO2 and temperature can influence the release of compounds from the roots of rocket plants. In short, the results show that global climate changes could influence disease incidence, probably through plant-mediated effects, caused by soilborne pathogens.

Global change is striking harder and faster in the Mediterranean Sea than elsewhere, where high levels of human pressure and proneness to climate change interact in modifying the structure and disrupting regulative mechanisms of marine ecosystems. Rocky reefs are particularly exposed to such environmental changes with ongoing trends of degradation being impressive. Due to the variety of habitat types and associated marine biodiversity, rocky reefs are critical for the functioning of marine ecosystems, and their decline could profoundly affect the provision of essential goods and services which human populations in coastal areas rely upon. Here, we provide an up-to-date overview of the status of rocky reefs, trends in human-driven changes undermining their integrity, and current and upcoming management and conservation strategies, attempting a projection on what could be the future of this essential component of Mediterranean marine ecosystems.

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.