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Given the considerable scale of distribution networks in urban and rural areas, as well as the lack of management records, adjustments of switches during the distribution system operation are poorly documented. Such deficiency results in the inaccuracy of models stored in the distribution network automation system, and thus misleads the state estimation. With the emergence of information and communication technology, a large number of the feeder and residential smart meter data are accumulated. Such data can help recognize the operation modes of distribution networks by analyzing the relationships between the on/off states of switches and the voltage correlations among buses. However, the limited quantity and quality of the sampling data restrict the implementation of data-driven recognition. In this paper, a physical-probabilistic-network (PPN) model applied for inferring overall operation mode of distribution networks is proposed. Based on which, a belief propagation-based algorithm is proposed for the inference even under situations when there are only partial bus voltages data available. Meanwhile, the required variable for inference can be reduced from the active trail analysis. Experiment results are used to compare its performance with classic methods and to prove its effectiveness and advantages.

Abstract Building energy performance is often inadequate given design goals. While different types of assessment methods exist, they either do not consider design goals and/or are not general enough to integrate new and innovative energy concepts. Furthermore, existing assessment methods focus mostly on the building and system level while ignoring more detailed data. With the availability and affordability of more detailed measured data, the increased number of measured data points requires a structure to organize these data. This paper presents the Energy Performance Comparison Methodology (EPCM), which enables the identification of performance problems based on a comparison of measured data and simulated data representing design goals. The EPCM is based on an interlinked building object hierarchy that structures the detailed performance data from a spatial and mechanical perspective. This research is developed and tested on multiple case studies that provide real-life context and more generality compared to single case studies.

Abstract For 118 million residential housing units in the U.S., there is currently a gap between the potential energy savings that can be achieved through the use of existing energy efficiency technologies, and the actual level of energy savings realized, particularly for the 37% of housing units that are considered residential rental properties. Additional quantifiable benefits are needed beyond energy savings to help further motivate residential property owners to invest in energy efficiency upgrades. This research focuses on assessing the adoption of energy efficient upgrades in U.S. residential housing and the impact on rental prices. Ten U.S. cities are chosen for analysis; these cities vary in size across multiple climate zones, and represent a diverse set of housing market conditions. Data was collected for over 159,000 rental property listings, their characteristics, and their energy efficiency measures listed in rental housing postings across each city. Following an extensive data quality control process, over thirty different types energy efficient features were identified. The level of adoption was determined for each city, ranging from 5.3% to 21.6%. Efficient lighting and appliances were among the most common, with many features doubling as energy efficient and other desirable aesthetic or comfort improvements. Then using propensity score matching and conditional mean comparison methods, the relative impact on rent charged in each city was calculated, which ranged from a 6% to 14.1% increase in rent for properties with energy efficient features, demonstrating a positive economic impact of these features, particularly for property owners. This was further subdivided into five types of energy efficiency upgrade and three housing types. Single family homes generally demanded higher premiums with energy efficient features, however there was not a consistent pattern across the types of efficient upgrades. The results of this work demonstrate that investment in energy efficient technologies has quantifiable benefits for rental property owners in the U.S. beyond just energy savings. This methodology and results can also be used in other cities and by property owners, utility companies, or others, ultimately encouraging further investment and positive economic impact in residential energy efficiency and in turn improving energy and resource conservation in the building sector.

Abstract This study demonstrates the possibility to use energy-cost optimal building designs based on life cycle approach. There is a lack of studies that cover the comprehensive assessment of both embodied energy (EE) and operational energy (OE) in a single optimization problem. The primary goal of the current study is to compare the optimized results of using OE+EE together and OE only. The optimization is performed on a case study building (townhouse) in Finland with three structural alternatives (i.e., reinforced concrete (RC); cross-laminated timber (CLT) and Steel). Different options for insulation thickness of external wall, roof, floor and window types were considered as decision variables as the scope of the present study is on building envelope. The objectives of the optimization are to minimize life cycle energy (LCE) and life cycle costs (LCC). The LCE difference between the most and least energy efficient solution on the pareto front is greater in case of the OE optimization, compared to OE+EE optimization. For all studied structures, the EE of the optimal solutions from OE+EE optimization ranges 16%–23% of LCE. Many of the non-dominated optimal solutions obtained from the OE+EE optimization shows a higher U-value for the building envelope components compared to the optimal solutions from the OE optimization. A relationship between both OE and EE with the overall thermal resistance of the building envelope is discussed to obtain a deeper understanding of such differences in U-value for the optimal solutions obtained from the OE+EE and OE optimization.

Abstract In developed countries, buildings are involved in almost 50% of total energy use and 30% of global green-house gas emissions. Buildings' operational energy is highly dependent on various building physical, operational, and functional characteristics, as well as meteorological and temporal properties. Besides physics-based building energy modeling, machine learning techniques can provide faster and higher accuracy estimates, given buildings' historic energy consumption data. Looking beyond individual building levels, forecasting buildings’ energy performance helps city and community managers have a better understanding of their future energy needs, and plan for satisfying them more efficiently. Focusing on an urban-scale, this study systematically reviews 70 journal articles, published in the field of building energy performance forecasting between 2015 and 2018. The recent literature have been categorized according to five criteria: 1. Learning Method, 2. Building Type, 3. Energy Type, 4. Input Data, and 5. Time-scale. The scarcity of building energy performance forecasting studies in urban-scale versus individual level is considerable. There is no study incorporating building functionality in terms of space functionality share percentages, nor assessing the effects of climate change on urban buildings energy performance using machine learning approaches and future weather scenarios. There is no optimal criteria combination for achieving the most accurate machine learning-based forecast, as there is no universal measure able to provide such global comparison. Accuracy levels are highly correlated with the characteristics of forecasting problems. The goal is to provide a comprehensive status of machine learning applications in urban building energy performance forecasting, during 2015–2018.

Abstract Kenya has made considerable policy efforts to expand its renewable energy portfolio to meet energy demand and mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Development of proper policies requires a robust framework for analyzing the benefits of renewable energy investments. Towards this end, this study applied a choice experiment analysis to determine how attributes (type of energy, ownership, impact on environment, distance and visibility, community job creation, and yearly renewable energy tax) impact the public willingness to pay for renewable energy development in Kenya. A nationwide survey of 1020 households was conducted in nine counties using conditional logit (MNL) and random parameter logit (RPL) frameworks. The results reveal that the Kenyan public places a high value on environmental impact, followed by type of renewable energy and community job creation, respectively. On the other hand, respondents do not place much emphasis on ownership or distance and visibility. Policy simulation suggests that while renewable energy adoption is highly valued by households, the total willingness to pay is not enough to cover the higher capital cost for the development of various renewable energy technologies.

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are playing an increasingly important role in long-run sustainability analysis. At their core is a set of global economic and environmental accounts which capture a complete set of inter-industry and inter-regional relationships in the global economy in a consistent manner. While much attention is focused on the raw data and parameterization required to expand or add sectoral detail to IAMs, only rarely is there discussion of how different matrix balancing methods (i.e. translating disparate raw data sources into the consistent database) affect modeling results. This article offers an in-depth look into the database–modeling nexus in IAMs, focusing on the electric power sector which is both a major source of CO2 emissions and a critical vehicle for climate change mitigation. Comparisons of the prevailing matrix balancing algorithms show how the choice of database reconciliation methodology affects modeling results using policy-relevant simulations in the context of the electric power sector. The resulting insights can be applied to the disaggregation of other, technology rich sectors in the economy. We conclude that appropriate selection of database reconciliation methodologies can reduce the deviation between bottom-up and top-down modeling.

Abstract Real-world vehicle operating mode data (2.5 million 1 Hz records), collected by instrumenting the vehicles of 82 volunteer drivers with OBD datalogger and GPS while they drove their routine travel routes, were analyzed to quantify vehicle emissions estimate errors due to road grade and driving style in rural, hilly Vermont. Data were collected in winter and summer for MY 1996 and newer passenger cars and trucks only. EPA MOVES2010b was used to estimate running exhaust emissions associated with measured vehicle activity. Changes in vehicle specific power (VSP) and MOVES operating mode (OpMode) due to proper accounting for real-world road grade indicated emission rate errors between 10% and 48%, depending on pollutant, chiefly because grade-related changes in VSP could shift activity by as many as six OpModes, depending on road type. The correct MOVES OpMode assignment was made only 33–55% of the time when road grade was not included in the VSP calculation. Driving style of individual drivers was difficult to assess due to unknown traffic operations data, but the largest differences between individual drivers were observed on rural restricted roads, where traffic conditions and control have minimal impact. The results suggest the importance of (1) measuring and incorporating real-world road grade in order to correctly assign MOVES emission rates; and (2) developing a driving style typology to account for differences in the MOVES emissions estimates due to driver variability.

Abstract Hydrogen is considered a potential game changer for world energy systems and a solution to climate change concerns, as it generates zero waste and it is suited for power generation and transportation. Despite its several advantages, there are significant technical challenges in deploying a stable hydrogen economy including improving its process efficiencies, lowering production costs, maintaining cost-effective transmission and distribution, and exploiting inexpensive and sustainable feedstocks. In this context, a detailed study was conducted to analyze the production sources, technologies, storage and transport systems, and global potential exportable feedstocks to produce hydrogen. A comprehensive analysis of current hydrogen production technologies with their energy efficiencies and hydrogen selling prices was reported in this study. Various hydrogen production technologies with their capital investments and CO2 emissions were also presented. Potential feedstocks for hydrogen production were identified and analyzed through a product space model, which characterizes a network of global exportable products based on their similarities and productive knowledge. It was established that the hydrogen production feedstocks and sources currently used are primarily available in six countries: the United States of America, France, Russia, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Spain. Broadly, the results revealed that the United States of America and Russia shared the highest hydrogen feedstock exports, indicating a higher probability of hydrogen production in these countries. Except for Russia, all the studied countries fell in the most desired quadrant, indicating that they can move in all product space directions to exploit unexplored hydrogen feedstocks for better sustainable economic growth.