• Energy Research

Abstract Climate change is impacting marine ecosystems and their goods and services in diverse ways, which can directly hinder our ability to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), set out under the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Through expert elicitation and a literature review, we find that most climate change effects have a wide variety of negative consequences across marine ecosystem services, though most studies have highlighted impacts from warming and consequences of marine species. Climate change is expected to negatively influence marine ecosystem services through global stressors—such as ocean warming and acidification—but also by amplifying local and regional stressors such as freshwater runoff and pollution load. Experts indicated that all SDGs would be overwhelmingly negatively affected by these climate impacts on marine ecosystem services, with eliminating hunger being among the most directly negatively affected SDG. Despite these challenges, the SDGs aiming to transform our consumption and production practices and develop clean energy systems are found to be least affected by marine climate impacts. These findings represent a strategic point of entry for countries to achieve sustainable development, given that these two goals are relatively robust to climate impacts and that they are important pre‐requisite for other SDGs. Our results suggest that climate change impacts on marine ecosystems are set to make the SDGs a moving target travelling away from us. Effective and urgent action towards sustainable development, including mitigating and adapting to climate impacts on marine systems are important to achieve the SDGs, but the longer this action stalls the more distant these goals will become. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

AbstractClimate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio‐economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery‐dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish‐MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%–30% (±12%–17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%–80% (±35%–200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size‐classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.

AbstractRebuilding overexploited marine populations is an important step to achieve the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 14—Life Below Water. Mitigating major human pressures is required to achieve rebuilding goals. Climate change is one such key pressure, impacting fish and invertebrate populations by changing their biomass and biogeography. Here, combining projection from a dynamic bioclimate envelope model with published estimates of status of exploited populations from a catch‐based analysis, we analyze the effects of different global warming and fishing levels on biomass rebuilding for the exploited species in 226 marine ecoregions of the world. Fifty three percent (121) of the marine ecoregions have significant (at 5% level) relationship between biomass and global warming level. Without climate change and under a target fishing mortality rate relative to the level required for maximum sustainable yield of 0.75, we project biomass rebuilding of 1.7–2.7 times (interquartile range) of current (average 2014–2018) levels across marine ecoregions. When global warming level is at 1.5 and 2.6°C, respectively, such biomass rebuilding drops to 1.4–2.0 and 1.1–1.5 times of current levels, with 10% and 25% of the ecoregions showing no biomass rebuilding, respectively. Marine ecoregions where biomass rebuilding is largely impacted by climate change are in West Africa, the Indo‐Pacific, the central and south Pacific, and the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Coastal communities in these ecoregions are highly dependent on fisheries for livelihoods and nutrition security. Lowering the targeted fishing level and keeping global warming below 1.5°C are projected to enable more climate‐sensitive ecoregions to rebuild biomass. However, our findings also underscore the need to resolve trade‐offs between climate‐resilient biomass rebuilding and the high near‐term demand for seafood to support the well‐being of coastal communities across the tropics.

Nous nous trouvons à un carrefour critique pour la gouvernance future de la haute mer, mais l'éloignement perçu de l'océan mondial crée un obstacle psychologique pour que les gens s'y engagent. Compte tenu des défis de la surexploitation, de l'accès inéquitable et d'autres préoccupations en matière de durabilité et d'équité, les mécanismes actuels de gouvernance des océans ne sont pas adaptés à leur objectif. Cette décennie offre des opportunités d'impact direct sur la gouvernance des océans, cependant, déclencher une transformation mondiale sur la façon dont nous utilisons et protégeons la moitié de notre planète nécessite un effort concerté guidé par des valeurs et des principes partagés entre les régions et les secteurs. L'objectif de la série d'ateliers décrits dans ce document était d'entreprendre un processus de réflexion sur l'avenir qui pourrait utiliser le cadre Nature Futures comme un mécanisme pour apporter plus d'énergie transformatrice dans la façon dont les humains conceptualisent la haute mer et donc comment nous visons à gouverner l'océan. Nous avons constaté que l'engagement avec l'avenir à travers des récits de science-fiction permettait une appréciation plus radicale de ce qui pourrait être et que l'infusion d'éléments artistiques dans la science peut inspirer un public au-delà du milieu universitaire. Ainsi, les efforts créatifs de coproduction qui favorisent et encouragent l'imagination pour relever les défis actuels devraient être considérés comme des outils importants dans l'interface science-politique, également comme un moyen de susciter des réponses empathiques. Cette série d'ateliers était une première étape, et, espérons-le, prometteuse, vers la génération d'une pratique plus créative dans la façon dont nous imaginons et agissons pour un avenir meilleur pour la haute mer. Nos encontramos en una encrucijada crítica para la futura gobernanza de la alta mar, pero la lejanía percibida del océano global crea una barrera psicológica para que las personas se involucren con él. Dados los desafíos de la sobreexplotación, el acceso inequitativo y otras preocupaciones de sostenibilidad y equidad, los mecanismos actuales de gobernanza de los océanos no son adecuados para su propósito. Esta década ofrece oportunidades para un impacto directo en la gobernanza de los océanos, sin embargo, desencadenar una transformación global sobre cómo usamos y protegemos la mitad de nuestro planeta requiere un esfuerzo concertado que se guíe por valores y principios compartidos en todas las regiones y sectores. El objetivo de la serie de talleres descritos en este documento era emprender un proceso de pensamiento sobre el futuro que pudiera utilizar el Marco de Futuros de la Naturaleza como un mecanismo para aportar más energía transformadora a la forma en que los humanos conceptualizan la alta mar y, por lo tanto, cómo pretendemos gobernar el océano. Descubrimos que comprometerse con el futuro a través de narrativas de ciencia ficción permitía una apreciación más radical de lo que podría ser e infundir a la ciencia elementos artísticos puede inspirar a audiencias más allá de la academia. Por lo tanto, los esfuerzos creativos de coproducción que promueven y fomentan la imaginación para abordar los desafíos actuales deben considerarse como herramientas importantes en la interfaz ciencia-política, también como una forma de obtener respuestas empáticas. Esta serie de talleres fue un primer paso, y esperemos que prometedor, hacia la generación de una praxis más creativa en la forma en que imaginamos y luego actuamos para un futuro mejor para la alta mar. We find ourselves at a critical crossroads for the future governance of the high seas, but the perceived remoteness of the global ocean creates a psychological barrier for people to engage with it. Given challenges of overexploitation, inequitable access and other sustainability and equity concerns, current ocean governance mechanisms are not fit-for-purpose. This decade offers opportunities for direct impact on ocean governance, however, triggering a global transformation on how we use and protect the half of our planet requires a concerted effort that is guided by shared values and principles across regions and sectors. The aim of the series of workshops outlined in this paper, was to undertake a futures thinking process that could use the Nature Futures Framework as a mechanism to bring more transformative energy into how humans conceptualise the high seas and therefore how we aim to govern the ocean. We found that engaging with the future through science fiction narratives allowed a more radical appreciation of what could be and infusing science with artistic elements can inspire audiences beyond academia. Thus, creative endeavours of co-production that promote and encourage imagination to address current challenges should be considered as important tools in the science-policy interface, also as a way to elicit empathetic responses. This workshop series was a first, and hopefully promising, step towards generating a more creative praxis in how we imagine and then act for a better future for the high seas. نجد أنفسنا في مفترق طرق حاسم للإدارة المستقبلية لأعالي البحار، لكن البعد المتصور للمحيط العالمي يخلق حاجزًا نفسيًا أمام الناس للتعامل معه. بالنظر إلى تحديات الاستغلال المفرط والوصول غير العادل وغيرها من شواغل الاستدامة والإنصاف، فإن آليات إدارة المحيطات الحالية ليست مناسبة للغرض. يوفر هذا العقد فرصًا للتأثير المباشر على إدارة المحيطات، ومع ذلك، فإن إحداث تحول عالمي حول كيفية استخدامنا لنصف كوكبنا وحمايته يتطلب جهدًا متضافرًا يسترشد بالقيم والمبادئ المشتركة عبر المناطق والقطاعات. كان الهدف من سلسلة ورش العمل الموضحة في هذه الورقة هو إجراء عملية تفكير مستقبلي يمكن أن تستخدم إطار عمل مستقبل الطبيعة كآلية لجلب المزيد من الطاقة التحويلية إلى كيفية تصور البشر لأعالي البحار وبالتالي كيف نهدف إلى حكم المحيط. وجدنا أن الانخراط في المستقبل من خلال روايات الخيال العلمي سمح بتقدير أكثر جذرية لما يمكن أن يكون وغرس العلم بالعناصر الفنية يمكن أن يلهم الجماهير خارج الأوساط الأكاديمية. وبالتالي، يجب اعتبار المساعي الإبداعية للإنتاج المشترك التي تعزز وتشجع الخيال لمواجهة التحديات الحالية أدوات مهمة في واجهة العلوم والسياسات، وأيضًا كوسيلة لاستنباط استجابات متعاطفة. كانت سلسلة ورش العمل هذه خطوة أولى، ونأمل أن تكون واعدة، نحو توليد ممارسة أكثر إبداعًا في كيفية تخيلنا ثم العمل من أجل مستقبل أفضل لأعالي البحار.

AbstractLarge‐scale and long‐term changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate change have been simulated using both statistical and process‐based models. However, national and regional fisheries management requires also shorter term projections on smaller spatial scales, and these need to be validated against fisheries data. A 26‐year time series of fish surveys with high spatial resolution in the North‐East Atlantic provides a unique opportunity to assess the ability of models to correctly simulate the changes in fish distribution and abundance that occurred in response to climate variability and change. We use a dynamic bioclimate envelope model forced by physical–biogeochemical output from eight ocean models to simulate changes in fish abundance and distribution at scales down to a spatial resolution of 0.5°. When comparing with these simulations with annual fish survey data, we found the largest differences at the 0.5° scale. Differences between fishery model runs driven by different biogeochemical models decrease dramatically when results are aggregated to larger scales (e.g. the whole North Sea), to total catches rather than individual species or when the ensemble mean instead of individual simulations are used. Recent improvements in the fidelity of biogeochemical models translate into lower error rates in the fisheries simulations. However, predictions based on different biogeochemical models are often more similar to each other than they are to the survey data, except for some pelagic species. We conclude that model results can be used to guide fisheries management at larger spatial scales, but more caution is needed at smaller scales.

AbstractEarth System Models project that global climate change will reduce ocean net primary production (NPP), upper trophic level biota biomass and potential fisheries catches in the future, especially in the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, projections from Earth System Models are undermined by poorly constrained assumptions regarding the biological cycling of iron, which is the main limiting resource for NPP over large parts of the ocean. In this study, we show that the climate change trends in NPP and the biomass of upper trophic levels are strongly affected by modifying assumptions associated with phytoplankton iron uptake. Using a suite of model experiments, we find 21st century climate change impacts on regional NPP range from −12.3% to +2.4% under a high emissions climate change scenario. This wide range arises from variations in the efficiency of iron retention in the upper ocean in the eastern equatorial Pacific across different scenarios of biological iron uptake, which affect the strength of regional iron limitation. Those scenarios where nitrogen limitation replaced iron limitation showed the largest projected NPP declines, while those where iron limitation was more resilient displayed little future change. All model scenarios have similar skill in reproducing past inter‐annual variations in regional ocean NPP, largely due to limited change in the historical period. Ultimately, projections of end of century upper trophic level biomass change are altered by 50%–80% across all plausible scenarios. Overall, we find that uncertainties in the biological iron cycle cascade through open ocean pelagic ecosystems, from plankton to fish, affecting their evolution under climate change. This highlights additional challenges to developing effective conservation and fisheries management policies under climate change.