• Energy Research

Scots pine is an adaptable and prevalent European tree species that grows naturally throughout Europe and has been planted in a wide range of environments. Previous studies have indicated that climatic variables affect tree-ring growth patterns in this species, but it is also possible that certain aspects of the growth environment moderate this response. In order to understand the potential impact a shifting climate has on this important species, this study compared the growth response of two populations of Scots pine. Trees from similar bioclimatic regions in Hungary and Poland were compared using the hypothesis that differences in the association between climate and growth would be reflected by the degree of tree-ring width variation. We also wanted to know how changing climatic conditions influenced the temporal stability of the climate–growth signal in the most important periods for tree growth. Clear similarities in the effect of temperature and precipitation on tree-ring width variation were found between the two sites, but there were also some interesting differences. In the late winter to early spring period both populations reacted to warming with a decreasing association with temperature. Summer precipitation was shown to be the dominant factor in controlling ring-width. A decreasing trend in summer precipitation values at both Hungarian and Polish sites resulted in a weakening in correspondence for the Hungarian trees, while the Polish trees showed a significant increase in correlation with summer precipitation. The results indicated that changes in climate influenced the studied trees in different ways which has implications for the future balance of Scots pine growth in Europe.

We estimated climate niche shifts and threat levels under various climate change scenarios for Vaccinium myrtillus L. and V. vitis-idaea L. We developed the MaxEnt species distribution models, and predicted future climatic optima for climate change scenarios for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. The precipitation of the warmest quarter was the most important factor shaping the climatic niches of the studied species. We predicted the largest shifts in climate niches from the present to the 2040-2060 period, with the most pessimistic scenario predicting significant range losses for both species, mainly in Western Europe. Under the most optimistic SSP126 scenario, both species will lose 39 % of their climatic niche for both periods. In the worst-case scenario (SSP585) for 2061-2080, climatic niche contraction will cover 47 % and 39 % of the current climatic niche for V. myrtillus and V. vitis-idaea, respectively. The predicted changes in species distribution could have far-reaching consequences for temperate and boreal forests due to their crucial biocenotic role in forest ecosystems, high potential for carbon sequestration, and prevention of soil erosion. Furthermore, the changes would likely affect the economic potential regarding fruit production and culturally relevant uses of different parts of the plants, mainly fruits.

Many phenological studies have shown that spring geophytes are very sensitive to climate change, responding by shifting flowering and fruiting dates. However, there is a gap in knowledge about climatic drivers of their distributions and range shifts under climate change. Here we aimed to estimate climate niche shifts for four widely distributed and common geophytes of the nemoral zone of Europe (Anemone nemorosa, Anemone ranunculoides, Convallaria majalis and Maianthemum bifolium) and to assess the threat level under various climate change scenarios. Using MaxEnt species distribution models and future climate change scenarios we found that the precipitation of the warmest quarter was the most important factor shaping their ranges. All species studied will experience more loss in the 2061-2080 period than in 2041-2060, and under more pessimistic scenarios. M. bifolium will experience the highest loss, followed by A. nemorosa, A. ranunculoides, and the smallest for C. majalis. A. ranunculoides will gain the most, while M. bifolium will have the smallest potential range expansion. Studied species may respond differently to climate change despite similar current distributions and climatic variables affecting their potential distribution. Even slight differences in climatic niches could reduce the overlap of future ranges compared to present. We expect that due to high dependence on the warmest quarter precipitation, summer droughts in the future may be particularly severe for species that prefer moist soils. The lack of adaptation to long-distance migration and limited availability of appropriate soils may limit their migration and lead to a decline in biodiversity and changes in European forests.

Changing ecosystem conditions and diverse socio-economical events have contributed to an ingrained presence of non-native tree species (NNTs) in the natural and cultural European landscapes. Recent research endeavors have focused on different aspects of NNTs such as legislation, benefits, and risks for forestry, emphasizing that large knowledge gaps remain. As an attempt to fulfill part of these gaps, within the PEN-CAFoRR COST Action (CA19128) network, we established an open-access questionnaire that allows both academic experts and practitioners to provide information regarding NNTs from 20 European countries. Then, we integrated the data originating from the questionnaire, related to the country-based assessment of both peer-reviewed and grey literature, with information from available datasets (EUFORGEN and EU-Forest), which gave the main structure to the study and led to a mixed approach review. Finally, our study provided important insights into the current state of knowledge regarding NNTs. In particular, we highlighted NNTs that have shown to be less commonly addressed in research, raising caution about those characterized by an invasive behavior and used for specific purposes (e.g., wood production, soil recultivation, afforestation, and reforestation). NNTs were especially explored in the context of resilient and adaptive forest management. Moreover, we emphasized the assisted and natural northward migration of NNTs as another underscored pressing issue, which needs to be addressed by joint efforts, especially in the context of the hybridization potential. This study represents an additional effort toward the knowledge enhancement of the NNTs situation in Europe, aiming for a continuously active common source deriving from interprofessional collaboration.

Most tree species in the temperate climatic zone (including Douglas fir) disperse seeds in autumn. Some of them must be exposed to cold (0–10 °C) and moist conditions (cold stratification) to overcome dormancy and trigger germination. In the Northern Hemisphere, winter warm spells occur more frequently and last longer than in recent decades from eastern Canada to Europe. Our main research objective was to investigate the influence of current (1 or 3 days at day/night temperatures: 15 °C/10 °C) and future predicted (5 days at day/night temperatures: 25 °C/15 °C) winter warm spells on dormancy breaking and germination traits (germination energy—GE; germination capacity—GC; final germination capacity—FGC) of Douglas fir seeds from four old-growth stands in northern Poland. For this purpose, we interrupted cold stratification of seeds at different time points, i.e., after 3 weeks; 6 weeks; 9 or 3 weeks and 6 weeks; 3 and 9 weeks; 6 and 9 weeks; 3 and 6 weeks and 9 weeks. We found that for GE and GC, all main effects (populations—P; days of warm spell—D; stratification duration—W) and interactions were significant (except interaction P×D). FGC was significantly affected by the effects P and D and interactions of D × W and P × D × W. In addition, we found that the predicted warm spells negatively affected the early germination stage (GE and GC) of Douglas fir, but both current and future predicted winter conditions will not negatively affect the late germination stage (FGC).

AbstractResearch in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1‐km2resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1‐km2pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse‐grained air temperature estimates from ERA5‐Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (−0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome‐specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near‐surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil‐related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications.