• Energy Research
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Energy forecasting is an essential task in power system operations. Operators usually issue forecasts and leverage them to schedule energy dispatch ahead of time. However, forecast models are typically developed in a way that overlooks the operational value of the forecasts. To bridge the gap, we design a value-oriented point forecasting approach for sequential energy dispatch problems with renewable energy sources. At the training phase, we align the loss function with the overall operation cost function, thereby achieving reduced operation costs. The forecast model parameter estimation is formulated as a bilevel program. Under mild assumptions, we convert the upper-level objective into an equivalent form using the dual solutions obtained from the lower-level operation problems. Additionally, a novel iterative solution strategy is proposed for the newly formulated bilevel program. Under such an iterative scheme, we show that the upper-level objective is locally linear regarding the forecast model output, and can act as the loss function. Numerical experiments demonstrate that, compared to commonly used statistical quality-oriented point forecasting methods, forecasts obtained by the proposed approach result in lower operation costs. Meanwhile, the proposed approach is more computationally efficient than traditional two-stage stochastic programs. Accepted in IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid

Creating and delivering products and services that promote sustainability is increasingly important in today’s economy. Novel services based on digital technologies and infrastructure can significantly contribute to sustainable development, as demonstrated by digitally enabled car-sharing services where increased asset utilization reduces production-related greenhouse gas emissions. However, there is still limited knowledge on how digital service innovation can purposefully be applied to promote sustainability. To address this gap, we conduct a systematic literature review and perform a qualitative inductive analysis of 50 articles on the impact of digital service innovation on social, environmental, and economic sustainability. We provide a comprehensive overview of real-world applications and identify five underlying mechanisms through which innovation with digital services can drive sustainable development. In doing so, we aim to pave the way to purposefully conceive, design, and implement digital services for sustainability.

Recent years have witnessed exponential growth in developing deep learning models for time series electricity forecasting in power systems. However, most of the proposed models are designed based on the designers’ inherent knowledge and experience without elaborating on the suitability of the proposed neural architectures. Moreover, these models cannot be self-adjusted to dynamically changed data patterns due to the inflexible design of their structures. Although several recent studies have considered the application of the neural architecture search (NAS) technique for obtaining a network with an optimized structure in the electricity forecasting sector, their training process is computationally expensive and their search strategies are not flexible, indicating that the NAS application in this area is still at an infancy stage. In this study, we propose an intelligent automated architecture search (IAAS) framework for the development of time series electricity forecasting models. The proposed framework contains three primary components, that is, network function–preserving transformation operation, reinforcement learning–based network transformation control, and heuristic network screening, which aim to improve the search quality of a network structure. After conducting comprehensive experiments on two publicly available electricity load data sets and two wind power data sets, we demonstrate that the proposed IAAS framework significantly outperforms the 10 existing models or methods in terms of forecasting accuracy and stability. Finally, we perform an ablation experiment to showcase the importance of critical components in the proposed IAAS framework in improving forecasting accuracy. History: Accepted by Ram Ramesh, Area Editor for Data Science and Machine Learning. Funding: J. Yang, G. Jiang, and Y. Chen were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grants 72293562, 72121001, 72101066, 72131005, 71801148, and 72171060]. Y. Chen was supported by the Heilongjiang Natural Science Excellent Youth Fund [YQ2022G004]. Supplemental Material: The software ( Yang et al. 2023 ) that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplemental Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2023.0034 ) as well as from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC/2023.0034 ). The complete IJOC Software and Data Repository is available at https://informsjoc.github.io/ .

PyPSA-Eur is an open model dataset of the European power system at the transmission network level that covers the full ENTSO-E area. It can be built using the code provided at https://github.com/PyPSA/PyPSA-eur. It contains alternating current lines at and above 220 kV voltage level and all high voltage direct current lines, substations, an open database of conventional power plants, time series for electrical demand and variable renewable generator availability, and geographic potentials for the expansion of wind and solar power. Not all data dependencies are shipped with the code repository, since git is not suited for handling large changing files. Instead we provide separate data bundles to be downloaded and extracted as noted in the documentation. This is the full data bundle to be used for rigorous research. It includes large bathymetry and natural protection area datasets. While the code in PyPSA-Eur is released as free software under the MIT, different licenses and terms of use apply to the various input data, which are summarised below: corine/* CORINE Land Cover (CLC) database Source: https://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/corine-land-cover/clc-2012/ Terms of Use: https://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/corine-land-cover/clc-2012?tab=metadata natura/* Natura 2000 natural protection areas Source: https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/natura-10 Terms of Use: https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/natura-10#tab-metadata gebco/GEBCO_2014_2D.nc GEBCO bathymetric dataset Source: https://www.gebco.net/data_and_products/gridded_bathymetry_data/version_20141103/ Terms of Use: https://www.gebco.net/data_and_products/gridded_bathymetry_data/documents/gebco_2014_historic.pdf je-e-21.03.02.xls Population and GDP data for Swiss Cantons Source: https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/en/home/news/whats-new.assetdetail.7786557.html Terms of Use: https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/en/home/fso/swiss-federal-statistical-office/terms-of-use.html https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home/bfs/oeffentliche-statistik/copyright.html nama_10r_3popgdp.tsv.gz Population by NUTS3 region Source: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=nama_10r_3popgdp&lang=en Terms of Use: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/about/policies/copyright GDP_per_capita_PPP_1990_2015_v2.nc Gross Domestic Product per capita (PPP) from years 1999 to 2015 Rectangular cutout for European countries in PyPSA-Eur, including a 10 km buffer Kummu et al. "Data from: Gridded global datasets for Gross Domestic Product and Human Development Index over 1990-2015" Source: https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.4 and associated dataset https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.4 ppp_2019_1km_Aggregated.tif The spatial distribution of population in 2020: Estimated total number of people per grid-cell. The dataset is available to download in Geotiff format at a resolution of 30 arc (approximately 1km at the equator). The projection is Geographic Coordinate System, WGS84. The units are number of people per pixel. The mapping approach is Random Forest-based dasymetric redistribution. Rectangular cutout for non-NUTS3 countries in PyPSA-Eur, i.e. MD and UA, including a 10 km buffer WorldPop (www.worldpop.org - School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton; Department of Geography and Geosciences, University of Louisville; Departement de Geographie, Universite de Namur) and Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University (2018). Global High Resolution Population Denominators Project - Funded by The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1134076). https://dx.doi.org/10.5258/SOTON/WP00647 Source: https://data.humdata.org/dataset/worldpop-population-counts-for-world and https://hub.worldpop.org/geodata/summary?id=24777 License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licens data/bundle/era5-HDD-per-country.csv - Link: https://gist.github.com/fneum/d99e24e19da423038fd55fe3a4ddf875- License: CC-BY 4.0- Contains country-level heating degree days in Europe for 1941-2023. Used for rescaling heat demand in weather years not covered by energy balance statistics. data/bundle/era5-runoff-per-country.csv - Link: https://gist.github.com/fneum/d99e24e19da423038fd55fe3a4ddf875- License: CC-BY 4.0- Contains country-level daily sum of runoff in Europe for 1941-2023. Used for rescaling hydro-electricity availability in weather years not covered by EIA hydro-generation statistics. shipdensity_global.zip Global Shipping Traffic Density Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0037580/Global-Shipping-Traffic-Density seawater_temperature.nc Global Ocean Physics Reanalysis Link: https://data.marine.copernicus.eu/product/GLOBAL_MULTIYEAR_PHY_001_030/services License: https://marine.copernicus.eu/user-corner/service-commitments-and-licence

Global climate challenge is demanding urgent actions for decarbonization, while electric power systems take the major roles in clean energy transition. Due to the existence of spatially and temporally dispersed renewable energy resources and the uneven distribution of carbon emission intensity throughout the grid, it is worth investigating future load planning and demand management to offset those generations with higher carbon emission rates. Such techniques include inter-region utilization of geographically shiftable resources and stochastic renewable energy. For instance, data center is considered to be a major carbon emission producer in the future due to increasing information load, while it holds the capability of geographical load balancing. In this paper, we propose a novel planning and operation model minimizing the system-level carbon emissions via sitting and operating geographically shiftable resources. This model decides the optimal locations for shiftable resources expansion along with power dispatch schedule. To accommodate future system operation patterns and a wide range of operating conditions, we incorporate 20-year fine-grained load and renewables scenarios for grid simulations of realistic sizes (e.g., up to 1888 buses). To tackle the computational challenges coming from the combinatorial nature of such large-scale planning problem, we develop a customized Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) method, which can find reasonable solutions satisfying solution time limits. Besides, MCTS enables flexible time window settings and offline solution adjustments. Extensive simulations validate that our planning model can reduce more than 10\% carbon emission across all setups. Compared to off-the-shelf optimization solvers such as Gurobi, our method achieves up to 8.1X acceleration while the solution gaps are less than 1.5\% in large-scale cases. Accepted at IEEE Transactions on Power Systems

In order to solve the problem of excessive burden of electricity and energy consumption in urban landscape buildings clusters, the study combined data mining algorithms to establish a prediction model for energy-saving renovation of urban landscape building clusters. Firstly, the energy demand and energy consumption of theurban landscape buildings complex were analysed, a mathematical model was established to predict the energy consumption of the building complex. Then, the prediction model of energy-saving retrofitting of building clusters was constructed by combining data mining techniques. The experimental results show that the change trend of total energy consumption is different under different single influencing factors of energy consumption. Among them, the lighting power density factor has the greatest influence on energy consumption, and its annual energy consumption change rate can reach about 0.35. Applying the prediction model to the energy consumption prediction of 15 urban single buildings, it was found that the total energy consumption of the buildings before the retrofit was much higher than that after the retrofit, and the energy-saving rate of the whole observed sample building group was as high as 18.5%, meanwhile, the highest energy-saving rate of the single buildings reached 30.1%.

Electrical load forecasting plays a crucial role in decision-making for power systems, including unit commitment and economic dispatch. The integration of renewable energy sources and the occurrence of external events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, have rapidly increased uncertainties in load forecasting. The uncertainties in load forecasting can be divided into two types: epistemic uncertainty and aleatoric uncertainty. Separating these types of uncertainties can help decision-makers better understand where and to what extent the uncertainty is, thereby enhancing their confidence in the following decision-making. This paper proposes a diffusion-based Seq2Seq structure to estimate epistemic uncertainty and employs the robust additive Cauchy distribution to estimate aleatoric uncertainty. Our method not only ensures the accuracy of load forecasting but also demonstrates the ability to separate the two types of uncertainties and be applicable to different levels of loads. The relevant code can be found at \url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/DiffLoad-4714/}. Accepted by IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2024

Batteries can effectively improve the security of energy systems and mitigate climate change by facilitating wind and solar power. The installed capacity of battery energy storage system (BESS), mainly the lithium ion batteries are increasing significantly in recent years. However, the battery degradation cannot be accurately quantified and integrated into energy management system with existing heuristic battery degradation models. This paper proposed a hierarchical deep learning based battery degradation quantification (HDL-BDQ) model to quantify the battery degradation given scheduled BESS daily operations. Particularly, two sequential and cohesive deep neural networks are proposed to accurately estimate the degree of degradation using inputs of battery operational profiles and it can significantly outperform existing fixed or linear rate based degradation models as well as single-stage deep neural models. Training results show the high accuracy of the proposed system. Moreover, a learning and optimization decoupled algorithm is implemented to strategically take advantage of the proposed HDL-BDQ model in optimization-based look-ahead scheduling (LAS) problems. Case studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed HDL-BDQ model in LAS of a microgrid testbed. 12 pages