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Food insecurity is a growing concern due to man-made conflicts, climate change, and economic downturns. Forecasting the state of food insecurity is essential to be able to trigger early actions, for example, by humanitarian actors. To measure the actual state of food insecurity, expert and consensus-based approaches and surveys are currently used. Both require substantial manpower, time, and budget. This paper introduces an extreme gradient-boosting machine learning model to forecast monthly transitions in the state of food security in Ethiopia, at a spatial granularity of livelihood zones, and for lead times of one to 12 months, using open-source data. The transition in the state of food security, hereafter referred to as predictand, is represented by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Data. From 19 categories of datasets, 130 variables were derived and used as predictors of the transition in the state of food security. The predictors represent changes in climate and land, market, conflict, infrastructure, demographics and livelihood zone characteristics. The most relevant predictors are found to be food security history and surface soil moisture. Overall, the model performs best for forecasting Deteriorations and Improvements in the state of food security compared to the baselines. The proposed method performs (F1 macro score) at least twice as well as the best baseline (a dummy classifier) for a Deterioration. The model performs better when forecasting long-term (7 months; F1 macro average = 0.61) compared to short-term (3 months; F1 macro average = 0.51). Combining machine learning, Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) ratings from monitoring systems, and open data can add value to existing consensus-based forecasting approaches as this combination provides longer lead times and more regular updates. Our approach can also be transferred to other countries as most of the data on the predictors are openly available from global data repositories.

High ethanol intake is well known to induce both anxiolytic and anxiogenic effects, in correlation with chromatin remodeling in the amygdaloid brain region and deficits in cell proliferation and survival in the hippocampus of rodents. Whether only moderate but chronic ethanol intake in C57BL/6J mice could also have an impact on chromatin remodeling and neuroplasticity was addressed here. Chronic ethanol consumption in a free choice paradigm was found to induce marked changes in the expression of genes implicated in neural development and histone post-translational modifications in the mouse hippocampus. Transcripts encoding neural bHLH activators and those from Bdnf exons II, III and VI were upregulated, whereas those from Bdnf exon VIII and Hdacs were downregulated by ethanol compared with water consumption. These ethanol-induced changes were associated with enrichment in both acetylated H3 at Bdnf promoter PVI and trimethylated H3 at PII and PIII. Conversely, acetylated H3 at PIII and PVIII and trimethylated H3 at PVIII were decreased in ethanol-exposed mice. In parallel, hippocampal brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) levels and TrkB-mediated neurogenesis in the dentate gyrus were significantly enhanced by ethanol consumption. These results suggest that, in C57BL/6J mice, chronic and moderate ethanol intake produces marked epigenetic changes underlying BDNF overexpression and downstream hippocampal neurogenesis.

The diversification of agri-food products through emerging chains has a fundamental social and economic role in Ecuador. A substantial amount of research focused only on examining critical factors in terms of agronomic and environmental performance. However, there is a shift in the agri-food chain perspective and study towards more sustainable models of production, logistics trade, and consumption. Aspects such as the socio-economic sustainability, level of collaboration between actors, an adequate chain configuration, and the employment of smart governance mechanisms show the weaknesses where stakeholders can propose enhancements. In this respect, socioeconomic and productive factors are consequential and still affecting the progress of these chains. Also, the current growth of market opportunities at the local and international level is a driver to support them by setting sustainable strategies. This study aimed to analyze socio-economic and production aspects to understand the dynamic across the emerging Inca berry (Physalis peruviana) chain located in Ecuador and bring forward potential strategies. Thus, chain vertical and horizontal dimensioning was introduced to contribute with relevant insights. The framework applied accounts with a revision of primary and support activities, and flows of high and low relevance. The investigation clustered pre-production, production, and post-production tiers. Also, it executed the food chain mapping, the identification of chain actors, and application of surveys at the supply chain levels to identify strengths and weaknesses based on specific socio-economic and productive variables. Results stated several viable long-term strategies. Examples of those strategies are the diversification of marketing channels, the intervention of academic institutions to improve efficiency, productivity, and the associations' empowerment. All of them aimed at circular economic models. The main research contribution is the application of the chain configuration to assess the chain performance comprehensively. Based on the results, our recommendation is incorporating new indicators to analyze the environmental and institutional components profoundly.

AbstractThe effects of rising global temperatures are becoming increasingly evident, with observable consequences such as the melting of polar ice caps, the occurrence of cyclones and hurricanes, desertification, and the destruction of ecosystems. The Italian economy is particularly vulnerable to the climate challenge, due to the prolonged slowdown in economic growth and the high unemployment that have plagued this economy over the last decades. Environmental innovation could be the key to tackling climate change, while at the same time promoting growth and employment. A comprehensive assessment of the effects of environmental innovation on growth and employment at the macroeconomic level should consider the compensation mechanisms associated with productivity gains, the substitution effects between more or less polluting goods, and the role of demand and consumer preferences. However, a comprehensive analysis that includes all of these direct and indirect effects of environmental innovation at the macroeconomic level is still lacking. This study aims to bridge this gap, introducing a structuralist computable general equilibrium model to simulate the effects of an increase in productivity and a change in consumer preferences in favour of less polluting industries in the Italian economy over the period 1995–2050. The results of the simulations indicate that a change in consumer preferences in favour of environmentally friendly goods in the Italian context may be more effective than an increase in productivity in stimulating demand, growth, and employment.

In this paper we investigate the prospects for the large-scale use of low-emission energy technologies in Africa. Many African countries have recently experienced substantial economic growth and aim at fulfilling much of the energy needs associated with continuing along paths of economic expansion by exploiting their large domestic potentials of renewable forms of energy. Important benefits of the abundant renewable energy resources in Africa are that they allow for stimulating economic development, increasing energy access and alleviating poverty, while simultaneously avoiding emissions of greenhouse gases. In this study we analyse what the likely energy demand in Africa could be until 2050, and inspect multiple scenarios for the concomitant levels of greenhouse gas emissions and emission intensities. We use the TIAM-ECN model for our study, which enawbbles detailed energy systems research through a technology-rich cost-minimisation procedure. The results from our analysis fully support an Africa-led effort to substantially enhance the use of the continent's renewable energy potential. But they suggest that the current aim of achieving 300 GW of additional renewable electricity generation capacity by 2030 is perhaps unrealistic, even given high GDP and population growth: we find figures that are close to half this level. On the other hand, we find evidence for leap-frogging opportunities, by which renewable energy options rather than fossil fuels could constitute the cost-optimal solution to fulfil most of Africa's growing energy requirements. An important benefit of leap-frogging is that it avoids an ultimately expensive fossil fuels lock-in that would fix the carbon footprint of the continent until at least the middle of the century.

Climate change triggers major alterations to coastal zones worldwide. Quantification of these adverse impacts to coastal ecosystems is often done on a coarse scale of global regions. Consistent local scale estimates of physical impacts on ecosystems and monetary assessment of associated losses are scarce, especially in developing countries. With aim of facilitating such assessment, which is increasingly required, here we propose a coherent three-step framework and subsequently apply it to quantify potential sea level rise-driven alterations in the monetary value of ecosystem services in the coastal area of Semarang in Indonesia. Within this framework, we (1) quantify the present value of coastal ecosystem services by using economic valuation techniques; (2) identify the potential impacts of relative sea level rise (RSLR)-induced inundation on ecosystem services (for the year 2100 inundation scenarios); and (3) monetize these impacts by developing a novel scenario-based approach. The results show that full inundation (scenario A with 4 m RSLR) poses a median loss of 90% (US$ 2.8 – 3.5) and 25% (US$ 90 – 113) to the present art and fishery values per hectare, while amenity service is expected to lose upto 50% (US$ 3700 – 5400) of its present value. Additionally, recreation value of the coastal ecosystems in three selected sites (Marina and Maron beaches, and Plumbon estuary) will decrease by 70% (US$ 15,460 – 19,820) per hectare. However, in scenario B (RSLR of 1.1 m) with a 50% inundated area, these losses are estimated approximately 40% less than for scenario A. It is expected that researchers and policy makers may apply this approach in their areas of interest to gain a better understanding of the likely costs of sea level rise-driven environmental damages along coasts, ultimately contributing to the sustainable management of coastal environment in Indonesia and possibly in other developing countries.

As climate change increasingly affects the world, much is said about the rising amounts of aid required to support emergency response, long-term development to adapt, and peacebuilding to ensure that conflict does not undermine these efforts. Bringing these ideas together, some advocate for the addition of a separate climate change stream into the humanitarian, development, and peace/peacebuilding nexus (or triple nexus). Based on a critical literature review and synthesis, this article articulates and conceptualizes how climate change perspectives and actions should be integrated into the existing streams of the humanitarian, development, and peace/peacebuilding nexus, rather than being added as a separate stream. The analysis shows the risks of adding climate change as a stand-alone stream and advocates for developing long-term strategies that integrate climate change actions into humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding efforts to better serve all three.