Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods
Copyright policy )Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods
The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO 2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.
[SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, [ SDV.BV ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, régression statistique, 550, impact sur le rendement, klim, Klimaatverandering, incertitude, agricultura, wheat, [SDV.BV] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, uncertainty, [ SDV.SA ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, agriculture, changement climatique, [SDV.SA] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Leerstoelgroep Plantaardige productiesystemen, Alterra - Klimaatverandering en adaptief land- en watermanagement, statistical regression, ta4111, simulation, PE&RC, [ SDE.MCG ] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, climate change, sécurité alimentaire, Plant Production Systems, modèle de récolte, cambio climático, rendimiento, Alterra - Climate change and adaptive land and water management, Climate Change and Adaptive Land and Water Management, 330, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, comparaison de modèles, Climate Change, yields, 333, Klimaatverandering en adaptief land- en watermanagement, Earth System Science, methods, statistical analysis, blé, température, métodos estadísticos, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Life Science, réchauffement climatique, global change, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, WIMEK, ddc:550, wheats, temperature, crop yield, yield, Climate Resilience, Earth sciences, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Klimaatbestendigheid, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, Leerstoelgroep Aardsysteemkunde
[SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, [ SDV.BV ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, régression statistique, 550, impact sur le rendement, klim, Klimaatverandering, incertitude, agricultura, wheat, [SDV.BV] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, uncertainty, [ SDV.SA ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, agriculture, changement climatique, [SDV.SA] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Leerstoelgroep Plantaardige productiesystemen, Alterra - Klimaatverandering en adaptief land- en watermanagement, statistical regression, ta4111, simulation, PE&RC, [ SDE.MCG ] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, climate change, sécurité alimentaire, Plant Production Systems, modèle de récolte, cambio climático, rendimiento, Alterra - Climate change and adaptive land and water management, Climate Change and Adaptive Land and Water Management, 330, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, comparaison de modèles, Climate Change, yields, 333, Klimaatverandering en adaptief land- en watermanagement, Earth System Science, methods, statistical analysis, blé, température, métodos estadísticos, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Life Science, réchauffement climatique, global change, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, WIMEK, ddc:550, wheats, temperature, crop yield, yield, Climate Resilience, Earth sciences, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Klimaatbestendigheid, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, Leerstoelgroep Aardsysteemkunde
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