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Unveiling African rainforest composition and vulnerability to global change

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Journal 21 Apr 2021 France Publisher:Springer Science and Business Media LLCJournal:Nature, volume 593, pages 90-94 (issn: 0028-0836, eissn: 1476-4687,

Authors: Ruppert Vimal; Raphaël Pélissier; Adeline Fayolle; Vincent Deblauwe; Vincent Deblauwe; Maxime Réjou-Méchain; Frédéric Mortier; +19 Authors

doi: 10.1038/s41586-021-03483-6

pmid: 33883743

handle: 10568/113678

Unveiling African rainforest composition and vulnerability to global change

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Abstract

Africa is forecasted to experience large and rapid climate change1 and population growth2 during the twenty-first century, which threatens the world's second largest rainforest. Protecting and sustainably managing these African forests requires an increased understanding of their compositional heterogeneity, the environmental drivers of forest composition and their vulnerability to ongoing changes. Here, using a very large dataset of 6 million trees in more than 180,000 field plots, we jointly model the distribution in abundance of the most dominant tree taxa in central Africa, and produce continuous maps of the floristic and functional composition of central African forests. Our results show that the uncertainty in taxon-specific distributions averages out at the community level, and reveal highly deterministic assemblages. We uncover contrasting floristic and functional compositions across climates, soil types and anthropogenic gradients, with functional convergence among types of forest that are floristically dissimilar. Combining these spatial predictions with scenarios of climatic and anthropogenic global change suggests a high vulnerability of the northern and southern forest margins, the Atlantic forests and most forests in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where both climate and anthropogenic threats are expected to increase sharply by 2085. These results constitute key quantitative benchmarks for scientists and policymakers to shape transnational conservation and management strategies that aim to provide a sustainable future for central African forests.

Country

France

Related Organizations

Département Sciences sociales, agriculture et alimentation, espace et environnement
France
National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment
France
University of Liège
Belgium
Wildlife Conservation Society
United States
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture
United Kingdom

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Keywords

[SDV.BID.SPT]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Systematics, 550, Acclimatization, vulnerability, Datasets as Topic, distribution des populations, [SDV.BID.SPT]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Systematics, Phylogenetics and taxonomy, Global Warming, Trees, conservation des forêts, K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_306b9cc8, [SDV.EE.ECO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5083, Human Activities, changement climatique, type forestier (composition botanique), Temperature, Phylogenetics and taxonomy, [SDV.BV.BOT]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology/Botanics, Sustainable Development, Tropical ecology, rain forests, climate change, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_7976, protection de la forêt, P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1432, Seasons, environment/Ecosystems, Rainforest, P40 - Météorologie et climatologie, forêt tropicale humide, Flowers, 333, [SDV.BV.BOT] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology/Botanics, botanical composition, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, [SDV.BID.SPT] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Systematics, Phylogenetics and taxonomy, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374158672853, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_28075, Humans, vulnérabilité, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374072455249, Africa, Central, Community ecology, Population Growth, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6113, 580, [SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, Africa, biodiversity conservation, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Forest ecology, Climate-change impacts, distribution géographique

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