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Diversity buffers winegrowing regions from climate change losses

Authors: Cornelis van Leeuwen; Benjamin I. Cook; Benjamin I. Cook; Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri; Kimberly A. Nicholas; Thierry Lacombe; Elizabeth M. Wolkovich; +4 Authors

Diversity buffers winegrowing regions from climate change losses

Abstract

Agrobiodiversity—the variation within agricultural plants, animals, and practices—is often suggested as a way to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on crops [S. A. Woodet al.,Trends Ecol. Evol.30, 531–539 (2015)]. Recently, increasing research and attention has focused on exploiting the intraspecific genetic variation within a crop [Hajjaret al.,Agric. Ecosyst. Environ.123, 261–270 (2008)], despite few relevant tests of how this diversity modifies agricultural forecasts. Here, we quantify how intraspecific diversity, via cultivars, changes global projections of growing areas. We focus on a crop that spans diverse climates, has the necessary records, and is clearly impacted by climate change: winegrapes (predominantlyVitis viniferasubspeciesvinifera). We draw on long-term French records to extrapolate globally for 11 cultivars (varieties) with high diversity in a key trait for climate change adaptation—phenology. We compared scenarios where growers shift to more climatically suitable cultivars as the climate warms or do not change cultivars. We find that cultivar diversity more than halved projected losses of current winegrowing areas under a 2 °C warming scenario, decreasing areas lost from 56 to 24%. These benefits are more muted at higher warming scenarios, reducing areas lost by a third at 4 °C (85% versus 58%). Our results support the potential of in situ shifting of cultivars to adapt agriculture to climate change—including in major winegrowing regions—as long as efforts to avoid higher warming scenarios are successful.

Countries
New Zealand, France, France, Spain, Spain
Keywords

Ciencias Agrarias/Agricultura, Physiological, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Climate Change, Climate change adaptation, Agrarian science, Land and Farm Management not elsewhere classified, phenology, 333, 630, Environmental science, agrobiodiversity, ANZSRC::070199 Agriculture, ANZSRC::070604 Oenology and Viticulture, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, [SDV.BV] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Vitis, Adaptation, resilience, climate change adaptation, agriculture, Resilience, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Adaptation, Physiological, Agrobiodiversity, [SDV] Life Sciences [q-bio], Medio Ambiente, Phenology, Seasons

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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147
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