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Climate change and the spread of vector‐borne diseases: using approximate Bayesian computation to compare invasion scenarios for the bluetongue virus vector Culicoides imicola in Italy

Authors: Mardulyn, Patrick; Goffredo, Maria; Conte, Annamaria; Hendrickx, Guy; Meiswinkel, Rudolf; Balenghien, Thomas; Sghaier, Soufien; +2 Authors

Climate change and the spread of vector‐borne diseases: using approximate Bayesian computation to compare invasion scenarios for the bluetongue virus vector Culicoides imicola in Italy

Abstract

AbstractBluetongue (BT) is a commonly cited example of a disease with a distribution believed to have recently expanded in response to global warming. The BT virus is transmitted to ruminants by biting midges of the genus Culicoides, and it has been hypothesized that the emergence of BT in Mediterranean Europe during the last two decades is a consequence of the recent colonization of the region by Culicoides imicola and linked to climate change. To better understand the mechanism responsible for the northward spread of BT, we tested the hypothesis of a recent colonization of Italy by C. imicola, by obtaining samples from more than 60 localities across Italy, Corsica, Southern France, and Northern Africa (the hypothesized source point for the recent invasion of C. imicola), and by genotyping them with 10 newly identified microsatellite loci. The patterns of genetic variation within and among the sampled populations were characterized and used in a rigorous approximate Bayesian computation framework to compare three competing historical hypotheses related to the arrival and establishment of C. imicola in Italy. The hypothesis of an ancient presence of the insect vector was strongly favoured by this analysis, with an associated P ≥ 99%, suggesting that causes other than the northward range expansion of C. imicola may have supported the emergence of BT in southern Europe. Overall, this study illustrates the potential of molecular genetic markers for exploring the assumed link between climate change and the spread of diseases.

Countries
Belgium, Netherlands, France
Keywords

population genetics - empirical, population-structure, L73 - Maladies des animaux, Ceratopogonidae, invasive species, Génétique des populations, population dynamics, Marqueur génétique, insects, Culicoides, genetic diversity, Sciences bio-médicales et agricoles, Italy, Entomologie, history, France, Fièvre catarrhale du mouton, L72 - Organismes nuisibles des animaux, Modèle mathématique, Genetic Markers, Genotype, P40 - Météorologie et climatologie, Climate Change, Évaluation du risque, mediterranean basin, Evolution des espèces, Virus bluetongue, statistical evaluation, expanding populations, chain monte-carlo, Animals, range expansion, Transmission des maladies, entomological surveillance, Changement climatique, Sheep, U10 - Méthodes mathématiques et statistiques, multilocus genotype data, espèce envahissante, Microsatellite, Computational Biology, Genetic Variation, Bayes Theorem, Maladie transmise par vecteur, Insect Vectors, Genetic Loci, Bluetongue virus, Microsatellite Repeats, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_1907, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_49865, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_4026, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_2329, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_976, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_24030, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_24199, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_9342, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_4698, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_10196, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_37932, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_1666, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_34142, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_36574, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_5218, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_34326

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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
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    Top 10%
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
30
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%