This paper presents a model to study how climate forecasts and the agricultural production function affect the effectiveness of government policies (disaster bailouts and agricultural income tax) and agricultural insurance (both compulsory and voluntary). In the base model with a neoclassical production function, we find that these programs could increase farmers’ expected profit and reduce its volatility. Furthermore, credible climate forecasts enable farmers, insurance companies, and governments to make more informed cultivate and insurance decisions, and therefore increase the benefit of these insurance programs to farmers. The results suggest that climate forecasts, combined with agriculture policies and insurance, can play an important role in securing farmers’ profits and providing climate risk management guidance for agriculture production.