• Energy Research

AbstractUnder climate change, model ensembles suggest that declines in phytoplankton biomass amplify into greater reductions at higher trophic levels, with serious implications for fisheries and carbon storage. However, the extent and mechanisms of this trophic amplification vary greatly among models, and validation is problematic. In situ size spectra offer a novel alternative, comparing biomass of small and larger organisms to quantify the net efficiency of energy transfer through natural food webs that are already challenged with multiple climate change stressors. Our global compilation of pelagic size spectrum slopes supports trophic amplification empirically, independently from model simulations. Thus, even a modest (16%) decline in phytoplankton this century would magnify into a 38% decline in supportable biomass of fish within the intensively-fished mid-latitude ocean. We also show that this amplification stems not from thermal controls on consumers, but mainly from temperature or nutrient controls that structure the phytoplankton baseline of the food web. The lack of evidence for direct thermal effects on size structure contrasts with most current thinking, based often on more acute stress experiments or shorter-timescale responses. Our synthesis of size spectra integrates these short-term dynamics, revealing the net efficiency of food webs acclimating and adapting to climatic stressors.

Body-size relationships between predators and prey exhibit remarkable diversity. However, the assumption that predators typically consume proportionally smaller prey often underlies size-dependent predation in ecosystem models. In reality, some animals can consume larger prey or exhibit limited changes in prey size as they grow larger themselves. These distinct predator–prey size relationships challenge the conventional assumptions of traditional size-based models. Cephalopods, with their diverse feeding behaviours and life histories, offer an excellent case study to investigate the impact of greater biological realism in predator–prey size relationships on energy flow within a size-structured ecosystem model. By categorizing cephalopods into high and low-activity groups, in line with empirically derived, distinct predator–prey size relationships, we found that incorporating greater biological realism in size-based feeding reduced ecosystem biomass and production, while simultaneously increasing biomass stability and turnover. Our results have broad implications for ecosystem modelling, since distinct predator–prey size relationships extend beyond cephalopods, encompassing a wide array of major taxonomic groups from filter-feeding fishes to baleen whales. Incorporating a diversity of size-based feeding in food web models can enhance their ecological and predictive accuracy when studying ecosystem dynamics.

Abstract Climate change is a complex global issue that is driving countless shifts in the structure and function of marine ecosystems. To better understand these shifts, many processes need to be considered, yet they are often approached from incompatible perspectives. This article reviews one relatively simple, integrated perspective: the abundance-size spectrum. We introduce the topic with a brief review of some of the ways climate change is expected to impact the marine ecosystem according to complex numerical models while acknowledging the limits to understanding posed by complex models. We then review how the size spectrum offers a simple conceptual alternative, given its regular power law size-frequency distribution when viewed on sufficiently broad scales. We further explore how anticipated physical aspects of climate change might manifest themselves through changes in the elevation, slope and regularity of the size spectrum, exposing mechanistic questions about integrated ecosystem structure, as well as how organism physiology and ecological interactions respond to multiple climatic stressors. Despite its application by ecosystem modellers and fisheries scientists, the size spectrum perspective is not widely used as a tool for monitoring ecosystem adaptation to climate change, providing a major opportunity for further research.

AbstractProjections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

AbstractEmerging fishing activity due to melting ice and poleward species distribution shifts in the rapidly‐warming Arctic Ocean challenges transboundary management and requires proactive governance. A 2021 moratorium on commercial fishing in the Arctic high seas provides a 16‐year runway for improved scientific understanding. Given substantial knowledge gaps, characterizing areas of highest uncertainty is a key first step. Marine ecosystem model ensembles that project future fish distributions could inform management of future Arctic fisheries, but Arctic‐specific variation has not yet been examined for global ensembles. We use the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Intercomparison Project ensemble driven by two Earth System Models (ESMs) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5) to illustrate the current state of and uncertainty among biomass projections for the Arctic Ocean over the duration of the moratorium. The models generally project biomass increases in more northern Arctic ecosystems and decreases in southern ecosystems, but wide intra‐model variation exceeds projection means in most cases. The two ESMs show opposite trends for the main environmental drivers. Therefore, these projections are currently insufficient to inform policy actions. Investment in sustained monitoring and improving modeling capacity, especially for sea ice dynamics, is urgently needed. Concurrently, it will be necessary to develop frameworks for making precautionary decisions under continued uncertainty. We conclude that researchers should be transparent about uncertainty, presenting these model projections not as a source of scientific “answers,” but as bounding for plausible, policy‐relevant questions to assess trade‐offs and mitigate risks.

SignificanceNuclear conflict poses the chilling prospect of triggering abrupt global cooling, and consequently, severely reduced crop production. However, the impacts on marine fisheries are unknown. If agricultural yields fall on land, could we turn to the sea instead? Here, we show that agricultural losses could not be offset by the world’s fisheries, especially given widespread overfishing. Cold temperatures and reduced sunlight would decrease the growth of fish biomass, at worst as much as under unmitigated climate change. Although intensified postwar fishing could yield a small catch increase, dramatic declines would ensue due to overharvesting. However, effective prewar fisheries management would create a substantial buffer of fish in the ocean, greatly increasing the oceans’ potential contribution during a global food emergency.