• Energy Research

The yellow clam Mesodesma mactroides is a cool-water species that typifies sandy beaches of the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (SAO), which embraces one of the strongest ocean warming hotspots. The region is influenced by the Rio de la Plata (RdlP), which represents a zoogeographic barrier that restricts its larval exchange. We investigated yellow clam larval connectivity patterns using an individual based model (IBM). The IBM combined outputs from a 3D hydrodynamic model with a clam submodel that considered salinity- and temperature-dependent mortality for the planktonic larvae. Connectivity across the RdlP estuary occurred only for larvae released in spring during a strong La Niña event. Mortality due to freshwater precluded larval transport across the RdlP, whereas larval mortality induced by warmer waters reduced connectivity, leading to self-recruitment in most areas. Warming acceleration in this hotspot could further restrict larval connectivity between populations in the SAO, with conservation implications for this threatened species.

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

The Mediterranean Sea is now recognized as a hotspot of global change, ranking among the fastest warming ocean regions. In order to project future plausible scenarios of marine biodiversity at the scale of the whole Mediterranean basin, the current challenge is to develop an explicit representation of the multispecies spatial dynamics under the combined influence of fishing pressure and climate change. Notwithstanding the advanced state-of-the-art modeling of food webs in the region, no previous studies have projected the consequences of climate change on marine ecosystems in an integrated way, considering changes in ocean dynamics, in phyto- and zoo-plankton productions, shifts in Mediterranean species distributions and their trophic interactions at the whole basin scale. We used an integrated modeling chain including a high-resolution regional climate model, a regional biogeochemistry model and a food web model OSMOSE to project the potential effects of climate change on biomass and catches for a wide array of species in the Mediterranean Sea. We showed that projected climate change would have large consequences for marine biodiversity by the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5 with current fishing mortality). The total biomass of high trophic level species (fish and macroinvertebrates) is projected to increase by 5 and 22% while total catch is projected to increase by 0.3 and 7% by 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, respectively. However, these global increases masked strong spatial and inter-species contrasts. The bulk of increase in catch and biomass would be located in the southeastern part of the basin while total catch could decrease by up to 23% in the western part. Winner species would mainly belong to the pelagic group, are thermophilic and/or exotic, of smaller size and of low trophic level while loser species are generally large-sized, some of them of great commercial interest, and could suffer from a spatial mismatch with potential prey subsequent to a contraction or shift of their geographic range. Given the already poor conditions of exploited resources, our results suggest the need for fisheries management to adapt to future changes and to incorporate climate change impacts in future management strategy evaluation.

Ensemble simulations of the ecosystem model Apecosm (https://apecosm.org) forced by the IPSL-CM6-LR climate model with the climate change scenario SSP5-8.5. The output files contain yearly mean biomass density for 3 communities (epipelagic, mesopelagic migratory and mesopelagic redidents) and 100 size classes (ranging from 0.12cm to 1.96m) The model grid file is also provided. Units are in J/m2 and can be converted in kg/m2 by dividing by 4e6. These outputs are associated with the "Assessing the time of emergence of marine ecosystems from global to local scales using IPSL-CM6A-LR/APECOSM climate-to-fish ensemble simulations" paper from the Earth's Future "Past and Future of Marine Ecosystems" Special Collection.

AbstractProjections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

Ensemble simulations of the ecosystem model Apecosm (https://apecosm.org) forced by the IPSL-CM6-LR climate model with the climate change scenario SSP1-2.6. The output files contain yearly mean biomass density for 3 communities (epipelagic, mesopelagic migratory and mesopelagic redidents) and 100 size classes (ranging from 0.12cm to 1.96m) The model grid file is also provided. Units are in J/m2 and can be converted in kg/m2 by dividing by 4e6. These outputs are associated with the "Assessing the time of emergence of marine ecosystems from global to local scales using IPSL-CM6A-LR/APECOSM climate-to-fish ensemble simulations" paper from the Earth's Future "Past and Future of Marine Ecosystems" Special Collection.