• Energy Research

Knowledge products comprise assessments of authoritative information supported by standards, governance, quality control, data, tools, and capacity building mechanisms. Considerable resources are dedicated to developing and maintaining knowledge products for biodiversity conservation, and they are widely used to inform policy and advise decision makers and practitioners. However, the financial cost of delivering this information is largely undocumented. We evaluated the costs and funding sources for developing and maintaining four global biodiversity and conservation knowledge products: The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems, Protected Planet, and the World Database of Key Biodiversity Areas. These are secondary data sets, built on primary data collected by extensive networks of expert contributors worldwide. We estimate that US$160 million (range: US$116-204 million), plus 293 person-years of volunteer time (range: 278-308 person-years) valued at US$ 14 million (range US$12-16 million), were invested in these four knowledge products between 1979 and 2013. More than half of this financing was provided through philanthropy, and nearly three-quarters was spent on personnel costs. The estimated annual cost of maintaining data and platforms for three of these knowledge products (excluding the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems for which annual costs were not possible to estimate for 2013) is US$6.5 million in total (range: US$6.2-6.7 million). We estimated that an additional US$114 million will be needed to reach pre-defined baselines of data coverage for all the four knowledge products, and that once achieved, annual maintenance costs will be approximately US$12 million. These costs are much lower than those to maintain many other, similarly important, global knowledge products. Ensuring that biodiversity and conservation knowledge products are sufficiently up to date, comprehensive and accurate is fundamental to inform decision-making for biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. Thus, the development and implementation of plans for sustainable long-term financing for them is critical.

AbstractDespite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity.One Sentence SummaryDevelopment pathways exist that allow for a reduction of the rates of biodiversity loss from land-use change and improvement in regulating services but climate change poses an increasing challenge.

We identified hotspots of terrestrial vertebrate species diversity in Europe and adjacent islands. Moreover, we assessed the extent to which by the end of the 21st century such hotspots will be exposed to average monthly temperature and precipitation patterns which can be regarded as extreme if compared to the climate experienced during 1950-2000. In particular, we considered the entire European sub-continent plus Turkey and a total of 1149 species of terrestrial vertebrates. For each species, we developed species-specific expert-based distribution models (validated against field data) which we used to calculate species richness maps for mammals, breeding birds, amphibians, and reptiles. Considering four global circulation model outputs and three emission scenarios, we generated an index of risk of exposure to extreme climates, and we used a bivariate local Moran’s I to identify the areas with a significant association between hotspots of diversity and high risk of exposure to extreme climates. Our results outline that the Mediterranean basin represents both an important hotspot for biodiversity and especially for threatened species for all taxa. In particular, the Iberian and Italian peninsulas host particularly high species richness as measured over all groups, while the eastern Mediterranean basin is particularly rich in amphibians and reptiles; the islands (both Macaronesian and Mediterranean) host the highest richness of threatened species for all taxa occurs. Our results suggest that the main hotspots of biodiversity for terrestrial vertebrates may be extensively influenced by the climate change projected to occur over the coming decades, especially in the Mediterranean bioregion, posing serious concerns for biodiversity conservation. PLoS ONE, 8 (9) ISSN:1932-6203

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Pour faire face à la crise mondiale actuelle de la biodiversité, les gouvernements ont fixé des objectifs stratégiques et adopté des indicateurs pour suivre les progrès vers leur réalisation. La projection des impacts probables sur la biodiversité de différentes décisions politiques permet aux décideurs de comprendre si et comment ces objectifs peuvent être atteints. Nous avons projeté les tendances de deux indicateurs largement utilisés de l'abondance de la population : l'abondance moyenne géométrique, équivalente à l'indice de la planète vivante et le risque d'extinction (l'indice de la liste rouge) dans différents scénarios de changement climatique et d'utilisation des terres. En les testant sur des espèces terrestres de carnivores et d'ongulés, nous avons constaté que les deux indicateurs diminuent régulièrement et que, d'ici 2050, dans un scénario de statu quo, l'abondance moyenne géométrique des populations diminue de 18 à 35 %, tandis que le risque d'extinction augmente pour 8 à 23 % des espèces, en fonction des hypothèses sur les réponses des espèces au changement climatique. BAU ne parviendra donc pas à atteindre l'objectif 12 de la Convention sur la diversité biologique consistant à améliorer l'état de conservation des espèces menacées connues. Un scénario de développement durable alternatif réduit à la fois le risque d'extinction et les pertes de population par rapport au BAU et pourrait entraîner une augmentation de la population. Notre approche des réponses des espèces modèles aux changements mondiaux met l'accent sur les scénarios directement au niveau des espèces, prenant ainsi en compte une dimension supplémentaire de la biodiversité et ouvrant la voie à l'inclusion de fondations écologiques plus solides dans les futures évaluations des scénarios de biodiversité. Para abordar la actual crisis mundial de biodiversidad, los gobiernos han establecido objetivos estratégicos y han adoptado indicadores para monitorear el progreso hacia su logro. La proyección de los posibles impactos en la biodiversidad de las diferentes decisiones políticas permite a los responsables de la toma de decisiones comprender si se pueden cumplir estos objetivos y cómo. Proyectamos tendencias en dos indicadores ampliamente utilizados de abundancia poblacional, la Abundancia Media Geométrica, equivalente al Índice de Planeta Vivo y el riesgo de extinción (el Índice de la Lista Roja) bajo diferentes escenarios de cambio climático y de uso de la tierra. Probando estos en especies de carnívoros y ungulados terrestres, encontramos que ambos indicadores disminuyen constantemente y, para 2050, en un escenario de negocios como de costumbre (BAU), la abundancia de la población media geométrica disminuye en un 18–35%, mientras que el riesgo de extinción aumenta para el 8–23% de las especies, dependiendo de los supuestos sobre las respuestas de las especies al cambio climático. Por lo tanto, BAU no cumplirá con la meta 12 del Convenio sobre la Diversidad Biológica de mejorar el estado de conservación de las especies amenazadas conocidas. Un escenario alternativo de desarrollo sostenible reduce tanto el riesgo de extinción como las pérdidas de población en comparación con BAU y podría conducir a un aumento de la población. Nuestro enfoque para modelar las respuestas de las especies a los cambios globales lleva el enfoque de los escenarios directamente al nivel de las especies, teniendo en cuenta así una dimensión adicional de la biodiversidad y allanando el camino para incluir fundamentos ecológicos más sólidos en futuras evaluaciones de escenarios de biodiversidad. To address the ongoing global biodiversity crisis, governments have set strategic objectives and have adopted indicators to monitor progress toward their achievement. Projecting the likely impacts on biodiversity of different policy decisions allows decision makers to understand if and how these targets can be met. We projected trends in two widely used indicators of population abundance Geometric Mean Abundance, equivalent to the Living Planet Index and extinction risk (the Red List Index) under different climate and land-use change scenarios. Testing these on terrestrial carnivore and ungulate species, we found that both indicators decline steadily, and by 2050, under a Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, geometric mean population abundance declines by 18–35% while extinction risk increases for 8–23% of the species, depending on assumptions about species responses to climate change. BAU will therefore fail Convention on Biological Diversity target 12 of improving the conservation status of known threatened species. An alternative sustainable development scenario reduces both extinction risk and population losses compared with BAU and could lead to population increases. Our approach to model species responses to global changes brings the focus of scenarios directly to the species level, thus taking into account an additional dimension of biodiversity and paving the way for including stronger ecological foundations into future biodiversity scenario assessments. ولمعالجة أزمة التنوع البيولوجي العالمية المستمرة، وضعت الحكومات أهدافاً استراتيجية واعتمدت مؤشرات لرصد التقدم المحرز نحو تحقيقها. إن توقع التأثيرات المحتملة على التنوع البيولوجي لقرارات السياسة المختلفة يسمح لصانعي القرار بفهم ما إذا كان يمكن تحقيق هذه الأهداف وكيفية تحقيقها. توقعنا اتجاهات في مؤشرين يستخدمان على نطاق واسع لوفرة السكان متوسط الوفرة الهندسية، أي ما يعادل مؤشر الكوكب الحي ومخاطر الانقراض (مؤشر القائمة الحمراء) في ظل سيناريوهات مختلفة لتغير المناخ واستخدام الأراضي. عند اختبارها على الأنواع آكلة اللحوم البرية وذوات الحوافر، وجدنا أن كلا المؤشرين ينخفضان بشكل مطرد، وبحلول عام 2050، في ظل سيناريو العمل كالمعتاد (BAU)، ينخفض متوسط وفرة السكان الهندسي بنسبة 18-35 ٪ بينما تزداد مخاطر الانقراض لـ 8-23 ٪ من الأنواع، اعتمادًا على الافتراضات حول استجابات الأنواع لتغير المناخ. وبالتالي، ستفشل جامعة البلقاء التطبيقية في تحقيق الهدف 12 من اتفاقية التنوع البيولوجي المتمثل في تحسين حالة حفظ الأنواع المعروفة المهددة بالانقراض. يقلل سيناريو التنمية المستدامة البديلة من خطر الانقراض والخسائر السكانية مقارنةً بوحدات العمل الاعتيادية ويمكن أن يؤدي إلى زيادة عدد السكان. إن نهجنا في استجابات الأنواع النموذجية للتغيرات العالمية يجلب تركيز السيناريوهات مباشرة إلى مستوى الأنواع، وبالتالي يأخذ في الاعتبار بُعدًا إضافيًا للتنوع البيولوجي ويمهد الطريق لإدراج أسس بيئية أقوى في تقييمات سيناريوهات التنوع البيولوجي المستقبلية.