• Energy Research

Southern Ocean phytoplankton production supports rich Antarctic marine ecosystems comprising copepods, krill, fish, seals, penguins, and whales. Anthropogenic climate change, however, is likely to drive rearrangements in phytoplankton community composition with potential ramifications for the whole ecosystem. In general, phytoplankton communities dominated by large phytoplankton, i.e., diatoms, yield shorter, more efficient food chains than ecosystems supported by small phytoplankton. Guided by a large ensemble of Earth system model simulations run under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5), we present hypotheses for how anthropogenic climate change may drive shifts in phytoplankton community structure in two regions of the Southern Ocean: the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) region and the sea ice zone (SIZ). Though both Southern Ocean regions experience warmer ocean temperatures and increased advective iron flux under 21st century climate warming, the model simulates a proliferation of diatoms at the expense of small phytoplankton in the ACC, while the opposite patterns are evident in the SIZ. The primary drivers of simulated diatom increases in the ACC region include warming, increased iron supply, and reduced light from increased cloudiness. In contrast, simulated reductions in ice cover yield greater light penetration in the SIZ, generating a phenological advance in the bloom accompanied by a shift to more small phytoplankton that effectively consume available iron; the result is an overall increase in net primary production, but a decreasing proportion of diatoms. Changes of this nature may promote more efficient trophic energy transferviacopepods or krill in the ACC region, while ecosystem transfer efficiency in the SIZ may decline as small phytoplankton grow in dominance, possibly impacting marine food webs sustaining Antarctic marine predators. Despite the simplistic ecosystem representation in our model, our results point to a potential shift in the relative success of contrasting phytoplankton ecological strategies in different regions of the Southern Ocean, with ramifications for higher trophic levels.

Southern Ocean phytoplankton production supports rich Antarctic marine ecosystems comprising copepods, krill, fish, seals, penguins, and whales. Anthropogenic climate change, however, is likely to drive rearrangements in phytoplankton community composition with potential ramifications for the whole ecosystem. In general, phytoplankton communities dominated by large phytoplankton, i.e., diatoms, yield shorter, more efficient food chains than ecosystems supported by small phytoplankton. Guided by a large ensemble of Earth system model simulations run under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5), we present hypotheses for how anthropogenic climate change may drive shifts in phytoplankton community structure in two regions of the Southern Ocean: the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) region and the sea ice zone (SIZ). Though both Southern Ocean regions experience warmer ocean temperatures and increased advective iron flux under 21st century climate warming, the model simulates a proliferation of diatoms at the expense of small phytoplankton in the ACC, while the opposite patterns are evident in the SIZ. The primary drivers of simulated diatom increases in the ACC region include warming, increased iron supply, and reduced light from increased cloudiness. In contrast, simulated reductions in ice cover yield greater light penetration in the SIZ, generating a phenological advance in the bloom accompanied by a shift to more small phytoplankton that effectively consume available iron; the result is an overall increase in net primary production, but a decreasing proportion of diatoms. Changes of this nature may promote more efficient trophic energy transferviacopepods or krill in the ACC region, while ecosystem transfer efficiency in the SIZ may decline as small phytoplankton grow in dominance, possibly impacting marine food webs sustaining Antarctic marine predators. Despite the simplistic ecosystem representation in our model, our results point to a potential shift in the relative success of contrasting phytoplankton ecological strategies in different regions of the Southern Ocean, with ramifications for higher trophic levels.

Abstract The FishErIes Size and functional TYpe model (FEISTY) is a mechanistic ecosystem model that fully integrates ecosystem structure across trophic levels through functional types. We present an R package that enables users to run simulations ranging from a 0D chemostat to full global scales. The library is written in Fortran90 with an R interface and provides a web application for visual exploration. We present and compare results from four core configurations across a range of depths, productivity and fishing levels, and we assess the convergence of solutions as the number of size classes is increased. The model has historically been coupled to biogeochemical models of mesozooplankton and detritus production, but it can also be applied in a stand‐alone version. We demonstrate the library to set up and simulate fish communities under varying productivity of mesozooplankton and benthos, and top‐down forcing from fishing. We outline three strategies for coupling FEISTY with biogeochemical model output and discuss future directions and open issues.

Abstract The FishErIes Size and functional TYpe model (FEISTY) is a mechanistic ecosystem model that fully integrates ecosystem structure across trophic levels through functional types. We present an R package that enables users to run simulations ranging from a 0D chemostat to full global scales. The library is written in Fortran90 with an R interface and provides a web application for visual exploration. We present and compare results from four core configurations across a range of depths, productivity and fishing levels, and we assess the convergence of solutions as the number of size classes is increased. The model has historically been coupled to biogeochemical models of mesozooplankton and detritus production, but it can also be applied in a stand‐alone version. We demonstrate the library to set up and simulate fish communities under varying productivity of mesozooplankton and benthos, and top‐down forcing from fishing. We outline three strategies for coupling FEISTY with biogeochemical model output and discuss future directions and open issues.

Marine animal biomass is expected to decrease in the 21st century due to climate driven changes in ocean environmental conditions. Previous studies suggest that the magnitude of the decline in primary production on apex predators could be amplified through the trophodynamics of marine food webs, leading to larger decreases in the biomass of predators relative to the decrease in primary production, a mechanism called trophic amplification. We compared relative changes in producer and consumer biomass or production in the global ocean to assess the extent of trophic amplification. We used simulations from nine marine ecosystem models (MEMs) from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Models Intercomparison Project forced by two Earth System Models under the high greenhouse gas emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5) and a scenario of no fishing. Globally, total consumer biomass is projected to decrease by 16.7 ± 9.5% more than net primary production (NPP) by 2090–2099 relative to 1995–2014, with substantial variations among MEMs and regions. Total consumer biomass is projected to decrease almost everywhere in the ocean (80% of the world’s oceans) in the model ensemble. In 40% of the world’s oceans, consumer biomass was projected to decrease more than NPP. Additionally, in another 36% of the world’s oceans consumer biomass is expected to decrease even as projected NPP increases. By analysing the biomass response within food webs in available MEMs, we found that model parameters and structures contributed to more complex responses than a consistent amplification of climate impacts of higher trophic levels. Our study provides additional insights into the ecological mechanisms that will impact marine ecosystems, thereby informing model and scenario development.

Marine animal biomass is expected to decrease in the 21st century due to climate driven changes in ocean environmental conditions. Previous studies suggest that the magnitude of the decline in primary production on apex predators could be amplified through the trophodynamics of marine food webs, leading to larger decreases in the biomass of predators relative to the decrease in primary production, a mechanism called trophic amplification. We compared relative changes in producer and consumer biomass or production in the global ocean to assess the extent of trophic amplification. We used simulations from nine marine ecosystem models (MEMs) from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Models Intercomparison Project forced by two Earth System Models under the high greenhouse gas emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5) and a scenario of no fishing. Globally, total consumer biomass is projected to decrease by 16.7 ± 9.5% more than net primary production (NPP) by 2090–2099 relative to 1995–2014, with substantial variations among MEMs and regions. Total consumer biomass is projected to decrease almost everywhere in the ocean (80% of the world’s oceans) in the model ensemble. In 40% of the world’s oceans, consumer biomass was projected to decrease more than NPP. Additionally, in another 36% of the world’s oceans consumer biomass is expected to decrease even as projected NPP increases. By analysing the biomass response within food webs in available MEMs, we found that model parameters and structures contributed to more complex responses than a consistent amplification of climate impacts of higher trophic levels. Our study provides additional insights into the ecological mechanisms that will impact marine ecosystems, thereby informing model and scenario development.